Last season was the breakout year for Derrick Henry that people have been waiting for since his rookie year. The Tennessee Titans running back finished with career-highs in nearly every category.
Henry recorded 1,059 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. All those (as well as his 15 receptions) were new bests for the three-year running back.
All those numbers combined meant that in the end, Henry put together a fantastic fantasy football season. However, a heavy chunk of that production came from just a few games.
In fact, in two weeks (Weeks 14 and 15), Henry ran for a combined 408 yards and six touchdowns on 50 carries. That means the rest of his season saw him run for just 651 yards and six touchdowns on 165 carries.
So in those two weeks, Henry averaged over eight yards per carry, but in the other 14 games he averaged 3.95 yards per carry.
Even worse, there are eight games that saw him pick up less than 50 yards on the ground, four of them seeing him fail to get even 30.
The numbers looked pretty great by the end of the year, but a deeper dive shows you he wasn't very consistent. That means Henry was giving fantasy owners a lot of underwhelming weeks – and there's a good chance he wasn't even starting when he did have those massive games.
So how are things looking for the running back in 2019 when it comes to a fantasy perspective?
The good news for Henry is that he's on a team that should probably focus on running and quick passes pretty often. Dion Lewis is in the backfield as well, but as last season proved, Henry is the clear cut bulk back. He'll get the majority of the playing time, with Lewis serving mostly as his change-of-pace and a receiving back.
The Titans have also added to their receiving corps. This makes their passing game a little more formidable, which will keep defenses from zeroing in on Henry. However, shaky quarterback play could make this not much of a helping factor after a few weeks.
Henry definitely turned somewhat of a corner in 2018. That being said, he still hasn't shown any type of real consistency. There will be plenty of games where you're begging for a late-game massive run or touchdown to salvage the week.
However, there will also be those weeks where Henry could almost single-handedly win you a matchup.
This will create a real conundrum for those that have Derrick Henry on their fantasy team. Do you start him weekly and accept those goose egg games to be sure you have him in your lineup when he explodes? Or do you only try to play matchups and give him starting time during another player's bye weeks and hope that's when he goes off?
Consistency is key for Henry when considering his fantasy outlook. The good news is that he's made obvious improvements over his first few years in the league and that trend should continue in 2019.
With that in mind, expect more consistency from Henry, but still too many highs-and-lows. In the end his season numbers will look strong (over 1,000 yards with plenty of touchdowns again). The question will be how much of that comes from just a few weeks of production.
If he were able to put it all together, Derrick Henry could be one of the most dangerous backs in football and a top-tier fantasy football option. Expecting such a massive leap is irresponsible though.
Outside of the last four weeks of the 2018 season, it was touchdown-or-bust for Henry. If he didn't score a touchdown, that week was a complete waste. Things will be better in 2019 – but by how much remains to be seen.
In the end, Derrick Henry will be a solid fantasy bench player that you shouldn't take anywhere earlier than middle rounds. There's too much risk. If you want to start him weekly though, he'll reward you on occasion.
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