The Buffalo Bills exceeded expectations last season and came within one game of making it to Super Bowl LV. Quarterback Josh Allen had one of the biggest improvements we have seen in the history of the NFL. Newly acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs immediately built a rapport with Allen and led the league in receiving yards. Buffalo had one of the most explosive offenses in the league and used this to ride all the way to the AFC Championship Game.
In general, when a team does as well as the Bills did they should retain as much of the roster as possible and make some upgrades here and there. For the most part, Buffalo had a complete squad.
Below are two adjustments the Bills can make to hopefully win it all next time.
1. Utilize the ground game
Buffalo lit up the scoreboard as a pass-first team. Allen was an MVP candidate and he had two All-Pro receivers in Diggs and Cole Beasley. They had an underrated offensive line, that did an admirable job protecting Allen.
To get to the next level, the Bills would have to be less predictable on offense. One of the things that worked in the Bills' favor was that despite having a lackluster ground game, opposing defenses would regularly bite on their play-action calls. In the following season, teams will have a year's worth of tape and reports on Buffalo and they should be able to adjust accordingly to the play-action, which is a huge chunk of the Buffalo offense.
Running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss had 687 and 481 rushing yards, respectively. The duo doesn't exactly strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators. For reference, Allen accrued 421 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. The two backs are still very young in their careers, so there is room for improvement. To be fair, their line did not open too many holes for them.
If the Bills retain their line moving forwards with improved chemistry and some scheme changes, perhaps the run blocking will get better. They don't have much wiggle room with the cap space, so signing a stud offensive lineman like Joe Thuney or Brandon Scherff would be difficult.
Another way to address the run game is to draft a game-changer. Alabama running back Najee Harris comes to mind. He has much more upside than both Singletary and Moss. Harris has great size, is a physical runner, and also an asset in the passing game.
2. Round out the defense
The Green Bay Packers have a star cornerback in Jaire Alexander. The All-Pro defensive back was such a ball hawk that opposing quarterbacks would just avoid throwing in his side of the field altogether. Unfortunately, this means they target the cornerback across him, Kevin King. This was evident in the Packers' loss in the NFC Championship Game, as King was regularly torched.
Buffalo is in a similar situation as they too have an All-Pro cornerback in Tre'Davious White. What the team needs to figure out is who to play opposite him. Their two cornerbacks Levi Wallace and Josh Norman are hitting free agency. Wallace is only 25 years old and should not command much in the market. They can resign him for his upside and familiarity with the scheme. On the other hand, the team should let Norman walk. He is 33 years old and historically cornerback is a position where players do not age well. Norman has not been the same player, since leaving the Carolina Panthers after his breakout 2015 season.
Similar to addressing the rushing attack, the Bills can address the need at cornerback in the draft. Harris is a surefire prospect, but quality running backs can be selected in the late rounds. Meanwhile, elite cornerbacks usually come off the board immediately. Case in point, Alexander and White were both first-round selections. The downside to this approach is that in this draft class there is a significant drop off after Patrick Surtain and Caleb Farley.
Pass defense and pass rush complement each other. If quarterbacks are pressured, they will likely throw more errant passes, which the secondary can pick off. If receivers cannot get open, this gives the defense more time to get to the quarterback. The front office can prioritize getting an impactful pass rusher if they are comfortable with Wallace moving forward. If Buffalo clears enough cap space, they can pursue several free agents, such as J.J. Watt. Blitzing is too risky a strategy against top-tier quarterbacks.
Allen's cap hit next season is a mere $6.9 million and this would be his last season on a rookie-scale contract. This is the most open Super Bowl window for the team.
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