As the 2020-'21 season prepares to take off, bettors are rushing to the sportsbooks to place their best 2021 NBA MVP bets. Among the most heavily wagered futures is one that is hardest to predict: Who will hoist the 2021 NBA MVP Award at the end of the regular season?
To start the shortened campaign, the books have already selected a few favorites.
Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Stephen Curry sit atop the board for obvious reasons.
Doncic is expected to take the league by storm again. The Greek Freak has been so dominant in the past two seasons, making him impossible to overlook; though, it's rare for a player to win the award three straight times. Curry will use this season to remind the league of his greatness after missing the majority of the previous campaign.
All three make strong cases, but as favorites, hold the lowest payout.
Here are three best bets for the 2021 NBA MVP that have a shot at winning and supplying a healthy payout.
Best 2021 NBA MVP bets
3. Damian Lillard (+1,200)
The memory of Lillard's historic bubble run is still fresh in the minds of most NBA fans.
At the Disney World campus in Orlando, Dame averaged a ridiculous 33.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 4.8 three pointers made.
Yes, this is a small sample size. But it's not like Lillard pulled a T.J. Warren and just went bananas out of no where. We always knew Dame was capable of stretches like this, and he pulled it off on the biggest stage of the year.
The Blazers star has a legitimate argument for the title of best point guard in the game, in a league where it is the most important position.
Portland revamped it's roster in the offseason, re-acquiring Enes Kanter and adding Robert Covington. Barring injury, it's possible that the Blazers finish as a top-five team in a deep Western Conference.
If Lillard can lead Portland to a top spot, his name will be in the running up to the closing days of the regular season. At +1,200, Lillard stands as a bargain buy.
2. James Harden (+1,400)
Seeing James Harden this low on the MVP board was a shock to see. Whatever your take on The Beard is, there is no denying he is one of the best scorers in NBA history.
In 2019-'20, Harden averaged 34.3 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.6 rebounds, enough to finish third in MVP voting behind LeBron James and winner Giannis Antetokounmpo.
With Russell Westbrook out of the picture in Houston, Harden's usage (and numbers) will only go up. Expect to see even more Harden step-back threes and trips to the free-throw line.
The biggest hurdle Harden will face is getting the Rockets to be relevant in the Western Conference playoff picture. The Lakers, Clippers, and Nuggets all have deeper and more threatening rosters than Houston and likely will finish ahead of them in the standings.
But after that, the conference is a crap shoot. Harden will run up the numbers, that's a given. It's likely the rest of the Rockets roster will pull their weight. Averaging 35+ on a playoff team makes Harden a steal at +1,400.
Of course, there's still a chance he'll be traded.
1. Jayson Tatum (+2,200)
Of all the options listed here, Tatum is easily the riskiest and biggest long-shot.
After a subpar sophomore season, the Celtics forward bounced back in a big way in 2019-'20.
He proved to Boston fans and the league that the sophomore slump was an anomaly, averaging 23.4 points and 7.0 rebounds while solidifying his position as the best player on the Celtics.
What hurts Tatum's MVP odds is the same factor that helps the Celtics' championship odds: team depth.
The C's are extremely well-rounded. Yes, Tatum is the best player on the team overall. But there are games when Jaylen Brown or Kemba Walker will take the spotlight, and even Marcus Smart on the odd night.
Damian Lillard will almost never have that problem, James Harden even less so.
But Tatum does have the advantage of being in the weaker Eastern Conference where he can run up numbers on the cellar dwellers.
To be in the MVP race, Tatum will have to average somewhere close to 28/29 points and lead the Celtics to a second seed finish, third at the lowest.
With the team depth, the high finish is likely. But, can Tatum show more consistency than last season by being the guy for Boston nearly every night?
In a shortened season, it's worth it to take Tatum at +2,200 and trust the rising star to take his game to the next level with another year of experience under his belt. At those odds, it's hard to pass on a player with so much talent on a championship contender.
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