History will be made this Sunday afternoon at Arthur Ashe Stadium in Queens, New York, where Russian Daniil Medvedev will attempt to win his first-ever Grand Slam title. This is the second Grand Slam final appearance this 2021 (third overall in career) for Medvedev, who also made it to the final of the Australian Open earlier this year, but was defeated by no other than Novak Djokovic. What’s your 2021 US Open Men's Final Prediction for Medvedev?

Meanwhile, it’s what Djokovic could potentially pull off today that has everyone on the edge of their seats. If Djokovic beats Medvedev, he would break his tie with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal for most Grand Slam titles ever. 

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Saturday’s big match.

2021 US Open Men's Final Odds: Daniil Medvedev-Novak Djokovic Odds

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Daniil Medvedev +191
Novak Djokovic -277

Why Daniil Medvedev will win

Remember when Medvedev recently implied that he was not concerned at all about the possibility of him and the Serbian facing off in the last stage of the 2021 US Open? Well, he now has to think about that every minute and every second until he crosses paths with Djokovic in the finals of the 2021 US Open men's singles tournament. Medvedev has been in terrific form in this year’s edition of the tourney, to say the least. He has dropped just one set so far and that was in the quarterfinals against Botic van de Zandschulp, whom he beat via a 6-3, 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 score. 

After that, Medvedev cruised to a 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 victory over  Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals. There’s no doubt that Djokovic is the favorite to win this match. But Medvedev does seem to be in a much better form going into the finals. For one, he’s got to have fresher legs. He dismantled Auger-Aliassime in straight sets in a match that lasted just a little bit over two hours. Meanwhile, Djokovic had to play over three hours to finish off a stubborn opponent in the semis. Moreover, Medvedev has had his success in the past against Djokovic. In fact, he’s defeated Djokovic three times in eight meetings. Medvedev last beat Djokovic in the Nitto ATP Finals back in November 2020. 

Why Novak Djokovic will win

Medvedev nearly had a different opponent to prepare for in the 2021 US Open finals, as Djokovic got a scare in the semifinals round against Alexander Zverev. Djokovic emerged from that contest a winner after five sets, which also saw him drop the first set for the third match in a row. We can’t know for certain whether Djokovic is losing these initial sets in part because he’s taking his foot off the gas for an added challenge or that he’s just simply having trouble accelerating into high gears right out of a gate. What’s sure is that he’s making a habit of getting out of these holes he’s dug himself. It’s also worth noting that he dropped the first set of his match in the final of the 2021 Wimbledon against Matteo Berrettini and again to the same player in the quarterfinals of the 2021 US Open.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Djokovic has lost a total of 10 first sets in Grand Slam matches this year but has successfully won all of them. Not only that but he’s also won the first three Grand Slam events of 2021, meaning a win against Medvedev Sunday afternoon will make Djokovic the first player to win the Grand Slam since 1988 when Steffi Graf won the Australian Open, Wimbledon, French Open, and US Open in that same year. What’s that got to do with regards to Djokovic’s chances against Medvedev? Simple. When the stakes are high, Djokovic always comes through, and that applies to his head-to-head matchup with Medvedev. Djokovic is 2-0 against Medvedev in Grand Slam matches.

Daniil Medvedev-Novak Djokovic 2021 US Open Men's Final Prediction & Pick

Medvedev is a man on a mission who certainly knows how to beat Djokovic, and it’s just up to him whether he can execute those plans. It should help him that he’s better rested than Djokovic. Then again, Djokovic is a crusher of dreams. This is perhaps the most important match of his career, the one that will ultimately define his legacy. I can’t bring myself to bet against Djokovic in this match. 

FINAL PICK: Novak Djokovic wins in four sets (-277).