The NBA Finals are here, and the Denver Nuggets will look to Jamal Murray to help them win their first championship ever. We are here to share our NBA odds series, and make a Jamal Murray series points average prediction and pick.

A year ago, the Denver Nuggets floundered as Nikola Jokic shouldered most of the load en route to an early playoff elimination. Sadly, they did not have the services of Jamal Murray, who was out with a torn ACL. Murray slowly made his way back into the lineup in 2022-2023 as he made his complete recovery. Now,  he has helped Jokic and the Nuggets make their first NBA Finals appearance.

Murray helped the Nuggets get past the Los Angeles Lakers and now wishes to do the same against the Miami Heat.  Curiously, he is facing a team with similar traits, and Murray noticed this.

Murray has averaged 27.7 points per game in the playoffs. Moreover, it has gotten better with every series. Murray averaged 27.2 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.6 rebounds in the Western Conference quarterfinals against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Then, he averaged 24.8 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.8 rebounds in the Western Conference semifinals against the Phoenix Suns. But Murray found his groove in the Western Conference Finals. Significantly, he went off for 32.5 points per game against the Lakers.

Murray now faces the Miami Heat. Ultimately, he faced them one time this season. Murray scored 14 points with two rebounds and six assists in a December 31 showdown with Miami. Moreover, he shot 3 for 6, including 1 for 3 from the triples.

Murray has some great teammates that get him the ball. First, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a good option to have, as he can redirect the pass back to Murray. Michael Porter Jr. is an excellent shooter. However, he also can pass, as he had six assists in Game 2. Aaron Gordon had five assists in Game 4, and four in Game 3. Consequently, there is one more player that gets it to him.

Here are the Jamal Murray NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Finals Odds: Jamal Murray Points Average Prediction

Jamal Murray Over: 26.5 (-102)

Jamal Murray Under: 26.5 (-125)

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Why Jamal Murray Will Average Over 26.5

Jokic is the key to Murray's success, as he displayed in the series against the Lakers. Amazingly, he generated 13 assists in Game 4, eight in Game 3, 12 in Game 2, and 14 in Game 1. Many of these passes went to Murray. Significantly, Murray had 31 points in Game 1 while shooting 12 for 20, including 4 of 8 from the three-point line. Murray also had 37 points in Game 2 while shooting 11 for 24, including 6 of 14 from the triples. Additionally, he had 37 points in Game 3, including 15 for 29 from the field and 5 for 11 from beyond the arc. Game 4 was lower, as Murray had 25 points while shooting 10 for 18 from the floor. However, he missed all four three-point shots.

But what made the series against the Lakers more incredible was Murray's ability to take charge in the fourth quarter. Moreover, he had 23 fourth-quarter points in Game 2. Murray now has four 20-point fourth quarters in the playoffs in his career.

Murray has played well against solid defensive teams. Furthermore, he can hit his shots from the three-point line. But Murray will now have to face a Heat squad that found its defense over the past two series matchups against the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.

Murray will average over 26.5 points per game because he is on fire from all over the court. Additionally, he has the intelligence to take advantage of any matchup.

Why Jamal Murray Will Average Under 26.5

The one thing going against Murray is his past experience against the Heat. Significantly, the Heat limited him and did not give him any room to shoot in the game on December 31. Murray also has averaged only 13.4 points per game in limited  action against the Heat. Curiously, the Heat sometimes employ a zone defense and might enforce it again if their strategy against Murray is not working. It will ultimately force Murray to take more challenging shots. However, this defense also gives him some extra space to shoot. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus will share the role of covering Murray. Also, Murray might need to work off the rust in Game 1, which might hinder his performance. Remember that the Nuggets have had 10 days off.

Jamal Murray will average under 26.5 points per game because the Heat will find a way to defend him. Furthermore, he will struggle in Game 1, which will bring the average down.

Final Jamal Murray Series Points Average Prediction & Pick

The Suns were the only team to contain Murray. Yes, the Heat are a great defensive team. But they also have to account for Jokic. Therefore, expect Murray to hit his numbers.

Final Jamal Murray Series Points Average Prediction & Pick: Jamal Murray Over: 26.5 (-102)