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It is almost draft day, but we have some NFL props to discuss first. Below we will continue our NFL odds series with an Aaron Rodgers regular season passing touchdowns total prediction and pick.
The New York Jets made a massive trade to acquire the four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers will no doubt bring the Jets the offense they need to compete in the NFL. New York struggled to keep up with the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals and other offenses that were just more explosive than them. Zac Wilson was having an awful year and the backups in New York could not get it done either. Trading for Rodgers is the Jets best chance at becoming a playoff team once again.
Below we will take a look at his total touchdown prop and give a prediction and pick on how many touchdowns Aaron Rodgers will throw with his new team.
2023 NFL Odds – Aaron Rodgers Regular Season Total Passing Touchdowns, Courtesy of FanDuel
2023 NFL Odds – Aaron Rodgers Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
Over: 29.5 (-112)
Under: 29.5 (-112)
Why Aaron Rodgers Will Hit the Over
Rodgers being the four time MVP is almost all the reason you may need. Rodgers has played at least 15 games in 13 of his NFL seasons. In those years, he has reached 30 passing touchdowns or more eight times. He has thrown 28 in two of those years. Rodgers, despite his age, still has the ability to throw for multiple touchdowns in every game he plays. To hit the over, he will need to throw two around two a game. Two years ago, he threw for 37 touchdowns and last year he threw for 26. Although last year a was a little bit of an off year for Rodgers and the Packers, he did not have the talented wide receivers he is used to having. He had multiple touchdowns and big catches dropped throughout the season. This is not something he will have to deal with on his new team.
The Jets have a lot of talent on the field with the addition of Rodgers. Garrett Wilson, Mecole Hardman Jr, Allen Lazard, Corey Davis and Breece Hall are just a few of them. That receiving core for Rodgers is going to bring him back to what he was in his MVP years. Garrett Wilson had over 1100 reception yards last season while Lazard had over 700 with Rodgers on the Packers. With these weapons, Rodgers should be able to settle in and return to his formal self. Not to mention, the Jets could easily add another weapon in the NFL draft.
Why Aaron Rodgers Will hit the Under
Rodgers had a massive decline last season. He went from 37 passing touchdowns to 26, and tried to deflect the blame a lot of times. Going to a team like the Jets, Rodgers will need to learn a new playbook and figure out a way to make it work. If the Jets are smart, they let Rodgers run the plays he may want to run, but that might not be the case. The Jets have the offensive talent to be very good and allow Rodgers to throw for a lot of touchdowns, but they might not have the coaching staff to match.
It could also come down to health. Rodgers is as tough as they come. However, there are some things that can not be controlled. In order for Rodgers to hit 30 passing touchdowns, he will need play a full season. If he does happen to take a hit, or have something happen to injure him, he is going to have trouble hitting this over.
Final Aaron Rodgers Regular Season Passing Touchdown Total Prediction and Pick
Rodgers is going to a team that has a promising, young and talented offense. With these players, Rodgers is going to have a great season. Expect him to elevate this Jets team to another level and throw for 30 or more touchdowns this season.
Final Aaron Rodgers Regular Season Passing Touchdown Total Prediction and Pick: Over 29.5 (-112)
