The NHL season is coming to a close, and ten teams are currently fighting for eight playoff spots. Both of the NHL’s newest franchises currently find themselves primed to make the playoffs, along with the defending champions. It’s time to continue our NHL odds series with a Western Conference prediction and pick.
The best team in the Western Conference is currently the Vegas Golden Knights, but they only sit two points above the Kings and three above the Stars for that top spot in the west. This team is getting hot at the right time, currently winners of 12 of 14 games.
Dallas is currently in second in the conference in goals per game scored and is led by Jason Robertson. Robertson's 41 goals are 7th in the NHL, and his total points are also 7th in the NHL.
Edmonton will answer that question this year. The top two players in terms of points are both on the Oilers' roster, led by potentially the best player in the league, Connor McDavid. McDavid’s 134 points are 30 points clear of second place in the league, and 34 more than anyone not on his own team.
Finally, there is Colorado. They knocked off the mighty Tampa Bay Lightning just last year, and look to repeat as champions. They started slow with injuries, but have come into form as of late. Alexandar Georgiev has replaced Darcy Keumper admirably, currently tied for 5th in the NHL in save percentage.
Here are the current Western Conference NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2023 NHL Odds: Current Western Conference Odds
Colorado Avalanche +270
Vegas Golden Knights +490
Edmonton Oilers +500
Dallas Stars +600
Los Angeles Kings +850
Minnesota Wild +900
Winnipeg Jets +1200
Seattle Kraken +1300
Why the Colorado Avalanche will win the Western Conference
Colorado is the defending Stanley Cup Champion, and repeating in the NHL is not that abnormal. Tampa Bay was going for the three-peat when they lost to the Avalanche. The Penguins had back-to-back in 2016-17. The Kings and Blackhawks alternated Stanley Cup wins from 2012-15. Pittsburgh and Detroit appeared in back-to-back finals in 2008-09, each winning once against the other.
Alexandar Georgiev has been great in goal for Colorado, taking over the job this year. He is limited in playoff experience, with only two games last season in New York. Colorado also has the star trio of Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Nathan MacKinnon. The trio is healthy and starting to put together the production they had when they won the cup a year ago. The Avalanche is also loaded with plus/minus leaders, with seven of their players appearing in the top 100. This mark is tied for fourth in the NHL. The combination of experience and players getting right at the perfect time is a recipe for a repeat.
Why the Vegas Golden Knights will win the Western Conference
Since the All-star break, Vegas is 14-3-2 and only picking up steam. Being hot at the right time is a key to playoff success, and the Golden Knights fit that bill. Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore are continuing great years and are leading the team. Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson are coming out of slumps and have been playing great since the break. Jonathan Marchessault has scored 11 points in March alone and also picking up steam.
Vegas has also beaten Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New Jersey recently, but struggled with the Western Conference with losses to Colorado and Dallas. Goaltending will be a concern for Vegas though, having started five different goalies this season. Two are on injured reserve and one is day-to-day. Jiri Patera got the most recent start, but that is one of just two on the season for him. It is also possible Mark Stone is back for the playoffs, but unlikely considering he is out with back surgery. If Vegas can keep up the upward swing, and get good goaltending, they will make a run.
Why the Edmonton Oilers will win the Western Conference
Edmonton scores, and scores a lot. Even more, they shoot a lot. A top-eight-shots on-goal team has won over 75% of the Stanley Cups since 2000. The biggest outlier was back in 2009 when the Penguins were 18th. Edmonton is currently 6th in the NHL and second in the West behind Calgary. Shooting leads to goals, and Edmonton does a lot of it. Obviously, goals matter too. The Oilers do a lot of scoring, with the two top points leader in the NHL both on the roster. They average 3.91 goals per game right now, the best in the NHL.
The leading goal scorer does not always win in the playoffs though. Since 2010, the NHL's top scorer has only made the Stanley Cup finals twice. Both of them won the cup. That was Sydney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin in 2017 and 2018 respectively. According to Moneypuck, Edmonton has the best odds to make the Stanley Cup out of the West, at a 22.4% chance. Much of this is to do with their scoring, but goaltending is picking up for them. Stuart Skinner has a .910 save percentage in March and is 7-1 in eight starts.
Why the Dallas Stars will win the Western Conference
With a veteran core that is 9th in the NHL in experience, the Dallas Stars could make a run to the cup. Jason Robertson is 7th in the NHL in both points and goals. Roope Hintz is having one the best season of his young career, just behind his career highs in points and goals that he set last year. Jamie Benn has 14 points in March and is starting to heat up. Dallas has all the right offensive pieces to make a run.
Goaltending is not an issue for them either. Jake Oettinger is 8th in goals against average, and tied for 5th in both save percentage and wins on the year. He has looked every bit the part of a top-flight goaltender in the league. What is hurting Dallas is they are not outstanding at any one thing. In most major statistical categories they sit right around 10th in the league. They are not bad, but they are not outstanding. This would not be an abnormality to see them get to the cup though. The team stack slightly better than the 2009 Penguins and 2012 Kings, who both made cup runs of their own.
Why the Minnesota Wild will win the Western Conference
If goaltending wins in the playoffs, Minnesota may be the pick. The Minnesota Wild boast solid goaltending, being third in the NHL in save percentage and goals against average this year. Their shots on goal and power-play goals are both in the top half of the league to boot.
Mats Zuccarello is an assist machine and opens up the ice for the Wild. The 12-year veteran is not going to wow anyone with big statistics, but when his team needs it, he comes up big. This year he has three game-winning goals but has an assist on nine of them. That is 12 wins coming from the help of his stick.
Final Western Conference Prediction and Pick
In the west, Dallas seems like the most likely candidate to make a breakthrough. Vegas has a lot of concerns in the net, and Minnesota may not have enough firepower to keep up. Edmonton can seemingly score at will, but that style of play does not always win in the playoffs. Colorado is coming together. They won the cup last year, and are starting to look like the same team that won it all.
Final Western Conference Prediction and Pick: Colorado (+270)
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