Is AJ Griffin a game-changing steal for the Atlanta Hawks?

With the 16th overall choice in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Atlanta Hawks selected AJ Griffin. The former Duke forward may prove to be a true steal in this draft class.

Griffin was once viewed as a potential top-five pick this year. That changed, however, due to concerns about his foot speed, defensive capabilities, and injury scares

To wit, Griffin was unfortunately absent from the Hawks' summer league debut. It was mainly because he experienced right foot soreness.

Still, the Hawks may feel they lucked out with this pick. For the second straight year, the Hawks were able to profit from a predicted lottery pick going their way. In the 2021 NBA Draft, they selected Jalen Johnson, another Duke forward, with the 20th overall pick. Now Griffin lands on their laps. In both cases, the Hawks chose to sign the top player available over more urgent requirements.

Notably, Griffin is the son of former player and coach Adrian Griffin, who is now part of the Toronto Raptors coaching staff.

To be clear, AJ Griffin has NBA-level talent. All he may need is an opportunity, and the Hawks can give him that. In fact, if everything falls into place, Griffin may play a significant role for the Atlanta Hawks this coming season. He does possess several qualities that the Hawks seem to have found appealing.

One good thing about Griffin is he can work within a system. This may have worked against him in the NBA Draft, but it will work in his favor as an NBA player. Keep in mind that he fell so far in the draft order because other rookies just had better numbers. Duke's inherent system and style of play may have resulted in Griffin's numbers being deflated. Still, at this high level, it's better to have the acumen to play within a system. That's one reason so many Duke products make it and last in the NBA.

To illustrate, Griffin's shooting is one aspect that can help the Hawks, but that will only happen if he is on the floor. Griffin can space the floor, but he will get playing time only if he earns the trust of head coach Nate McMillan. Coach Nate does not usually start rookies or play them a ton, but Griffin could be an interesting exception.

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AJ Griffin Bold Hawks Predictions

3. Griffin will be the Hawks' third-best shooter

Griffin has good size and can play both wing positions. He can also shoot the lights out of any arena. That shooting has been his calling card since high school. It should enable the Hawks to spread the floor better, especially with Kevin Huerter now on another team and Bogdan Bogdanovic having recurring knee problems.

Griffin also has a 6'11 wingspan, which should enhance his shooting skills even more. He should be able to shoot over most players closing out on him.

In college, Griffin made 44.7 percent of his three-point attempts, which is quite a high rate. For coach McMillan, Griffin can play a ton of minutes if he can approximate that shooting percentage in the NBA.

The Hawks' new star backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray will certainly benefit from having a bevy of shooters on the wings. Both Young and Murray need catch-and-shoot guys to complement their attacking tendencies. Griffin could be one of them.

2. Griffin will be a defensive liability

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As good as Griffin is with his outside touch, though, his defense leaves much to be desired. In college, he was rendered vulnerable in switches on the perimeter.

Griffin has trouble defending quick and athletic players. He is usually a step slow, which is a liability in the current NBA landscape. In an era where shooters about alongside dribble-drive attackers, being a step too slow is one step too much already. Griffin should expect and prepare for opponents targeting him on defense.

Even more than his shooting, this area may prove to be a stronger barometer for Griffin's playing time this coming season.

1. Griffin will be sidelined by injury

Griffin's balance has also been put in question in the past. This is mainly due to persistent leg problems. In the past, he experienced a non-contact knee injury during his junior year of high school. Back then, it was labeled as a dislocated knee. The next year, he again had ailments. This time, they were to his back and ankles. To compound things, yet another knee injury occurred before his rookie season at Duke.

As one can see, Griffin has been quite unlucky with injuries. That appears to have also hampered his explosiveness and athleticism. At this level, both those things are important, especially for rookies.

The bottom line for Griffin is his shooting will be valuable for the Hawks. On the flip side, his shooting will only matter if he is healthy enough to be on the floor or if his defense can keep up.