Kyrie Irving rocked the NBA world by joining the Brooklyn Nets at the outset of free agency, bringing Kevin Durant along with him. But with the two-time Finals MVP poised to miss most if not all of his debut season in Brooklyn, it will fall on Irving to set a tone for the Nets – both on and off the floor – that could have championship ramifications for years to come.
Here are three bold predictions for Kyrie Irving's 2019-20 season.
He'll average the fewest minutes per game since his rookie year
Injuries and the accompanying risk of additional wear and tear have kept Irving from being a high-minute superstar. The eight-year veteran was drafted first overall in 2011 despite playing in just 11 games at Duke due to a toe injury, fractured his left kneecap in overtime of Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals, and has generally been prone to nagging pain of various varieties every season of his career. He's never played more than 75 games, and has appeared in 60 or fewer games four different seasons.
Irving's relatively checkered injury history, coupled with the inevitably limited scope of Brooklyn's ability to contend sans Durant, always ensured the Nets would take a relatively cautious approach to his debut campaign in terms of rest. Under general manager Sean Marks and coach Kenny Atkinson, Brooklyn is on the vanguard of prioritizing player rest and rehabilitation. No player notched more than 30.2 minutes per game in 2018-19, and over the two years prior, the Nets made history with no player getting more than 30 minutes per game in consecutive seasons.
Then there's Brooklyn's incumbent ball-handling talent to consider. Spencer Dinwiddie is arguably the most dynamic reserve guard in basketball, and Caris LeVert re-staked his claim as a rising star in the playoffs after his meteoric early-season rise was cut short by a fractured ankle. Atkinson prefers lineups with two playmakers, and LeVert probably won't be on the floor much without Irving or Dinwiddie, but the Nets simply have no need to overstretch Irving given the presence of two dynamic creators.
As a rookie, Irving averaged 30.5 minutes per game. He'll eclipse that number in 2019-20, but not by much.
He'll run far more ball screens than in either his seasons with Boston
Though his individual numbers hardly showed it, Irving's game was neutered a bit by the Boston Celtics' preference for a utilitarian offense based more on flow and continuity than singular individual talent. Irving still got his fair share of chances to attack off the dribble, of course, but they mostly came within the hum of Brad Stevens' offense or in late-clock situations.
Don't expect that trend to continue with the Nets. They finished 26.7 percent of possessions with a pick-and-roll in the playoffs, per NBA.com/stats, an easy league-high, and ranked seventh in the same measure during the regular season. While Brooklyn's reliance on ball screens is at least in part explained by the presence of D'Angelo Russell, Atkinson, unlike some forward-thinking coaches, has never been afraid to deviate from his scheme by flattening the floor and letting his playmakers go to work – normally with weak-side action to keep the defense honest, of course.
Russell averaged 11.4 pick-and-rolls per game last season, second in the league to Kemba Walker. The diversity of Irving's skill set means he probably won't reach that total, but should nevertheless get more ball-screen opportunities than in either of his seasons with Boston, when he averaged fewer than seven per game.
He'll be on his best behavior in the locker room
It's easy to forget that Irving didn't choose to be traded to the Celtics. Despite the fact he has family ties to Boston and seemed thrilled at the prospect of spending his entire career there as recently as last October, it was always true that Irving only controlled so much of his trade to the Celtics. He had far less input in the Cleveland Cavaliers bringing back LeBron James, too, a development that pushed his career to new heights and cemented his place in NBA lore, but also culminated in his trade demand.
Signing with the Nets was the first real choice Irving has made in his career when it comes to where he's playing. That reality can't be discounted when assessing the prospect of his personality quirks and occasional melancholy infecting the ingrained culture that helped draw him to Brooklyn in the first place. And with the entire league and Durant watching closely following his acrimonious departure from the Celtics, Irving has extra incentive to be on his best behavior.
After his free-agency decision was finally announced to the world, Irving said that playing for the Nets is “a dream I wanted to fulfill.” Expect him to show it by immersing himself in Brooklyn's ways to an extent he never did with the Celtics.
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