Few teams in the NFL are in a better position than the Indianapolis Colts. They managed to win a playoff game despite starting the season with a 1-5 record. Andrew Luck is healthy, and they have the most cap space in the league.
It is safe to say that the Colts are a testament to how quickly perceptions can change. Last summer, most of the talking points about Indianapolis were negative, with the focus being on Luck's health. It wasn't until mid-June during minicamp that Luck threw an NFL regulation-sized football.
The negativity surrounding the Colts went beyond Luck's shoulder, though. Many experts questioned why the team wasn't more active in free agency. Some even questioned the selections of Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard, who both earned First-Team All-Pro honors as rookies.
Josh McDaniels, by backing out of his commitment to become the Colts' next head coach after making staff hires, certainly raised questions about the team. Fortunately, it all worked out in the end for Indianapolis since it hired Frank Reich and won a playoff game, but that wasn't the expectation from many NFL observers in September.
Despite all of the reasons for hope, a few questions linger heading into the offseason.
What positions will the Colts emphasize in the draft?
While the Colts will not have nearly the quality of draft assets as they did in 2018, they will still have plenty of options. They will have picks at these slots: 26th, 34th (via New York Jets), 59th, 90th, 123rd, somewhere from 129th-137th (projected compensatory pick), 154th, 187th, and 218th.
There will be no shortage of options for the Colts with the 34th pick. They can either stand pat and use it on a player who previously wasn't projected to be on the board beyond the first round, use it in a trade package to trade up, or acquire more assets to trade down.
While there has been a lot of talk about what Indianapolis will look to do in free agency with its cap space, it's important to remember that general manager Chris Ballard prefers to build through the draft. He told Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star (now at The Athletic) of his philosophy.
“In Chicago, in (2002-04), we really drafted the core of our team,” Ballard said. “We did a great job in free agency in Chicago of supplementing with some big-name players. But Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman and guys like that, they all came from the draft and they ended up being good players in Chicago.”
The top concerns for Indianapolis include a lack of receiving talent, a need for a better pass rush, an aging defensive line, uncertainty regarding the safety position, and insufficient cornerback options. The Colts should be able to address some of these pressing needs without having to use draft assets, but that won't be known until free agency comes and goes.
It's very difficult to acquire high-end pass rushers without drafting them. That's the case because teams either prioritize their salary cap spending on re-signing those talents, or they use the franchise tag to prevent them from leaving in free agency. Indianapolis should try to address its pass-rushing needs through the draft if possible.
The wide receiver spot is likely a need the Colts will bolster through both free agency and the draft. A big-bodied receiver is the particular weapon they need to pair alongside T.Y. Hilton to create more versatility for their passing game. There is no shortage of those receivers in this upcoming NFL Draft.
It is easy to see the progress the Colts made with their defense last season, but now the focus will be to take another leap forward. Aside from the wide receiver position, few other offensive positions are likely worth using an early-round pick. The Colts could emphasize adding more pass-rushing talent and building their cornerback depth.
What will the Colts decide to do with Jacoby Brissett?
Now that Andrew Luck is healthy, the need for a high-end backup quarterback is not quite as significant. The Colts could move Jacoby Brissett for an early-round draft pick if the right offer was presented to them.
Chris Ballard recently told George Bremer of the Anderson Herald–Bulletin that trading Brissett would “take somebody doing something that would blow me away” when asked about the idea of trading him.
The comment Ballard made in January reflects a different tone from the response Colt owner Jim Irsay gave to a similar question back in late August. Irsay even noted that “I don't think we'd accept a [first round pick in a trade] for him.”
It is worth noting that Brissett told Mike Chappel of Fox 59 during the offseason that he would prefer to be a starting quarterback someday rather than stay in a backup role.
“I want to be a starter in this league,” Brissett said. “If that's what you're asking me, yeah, I want to be a starter in this league.”
“Everybody in this room wants to be a starter. Nobody wants to be a backup.”
To be clear, the comment Brissett made to Chappel was not meant to create the perception that he wants out of Indianapolis. Regardless, a combination of circumstances points toward the Colts trading Brissett for draft compensation as the most mutually beneficial outcome.
Since the Colts could use a dynamic pass-rushing talent, it may make the most sense to trade Brissett to add to their draft assets. Acquiring another early-round pick would allow Indianapolis to put together a better trade package to move up, or it could simply make another early selection if it believes in the available options.
Will the Colts be aggressive with their cap space in free agency?
What could ultimately set the tone for the Colts' offseason plans is their effectiveness at addressing needs in free agency. Being able to bolster their depth chart before the NFL Draft will allow them to use their selections with a focus on long-term potential rather than trying to fix immediate issues.
While Ballard prefers to build through the draft, he did mention to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star that there will be a time when the Colts “go all-in” as spenders in free agency. The upcoming free agency period could be an ideal time for the Colts to be spenders, considering that they have the most cap space in the NFL.
“There will come a time here when we will go all-in and people will look sideways at us because we’re giving (players) a huge amount of money,” Ballard said. “We just didn’t feel like we were there yet. We don’t think we have a good, young nucleus of players that has really built the culture in the locker room to take in free-agent guys. That’s why we were pretty selective. That’s why all the guys we did take in we felt good about and we felt we got them at a good price for both the player and us.”
The question is, do the Colts believe that now is the time to push all their chips in and spend big with their cap space? They are coming off a season that included a playoff win, so it appears to be the right time to be aggressive with their spending.
If Indianapolis does intend to spend, there appear to be plenty of quality options. In addition to making signings to improve depth at key positions, the Colts could make significant swings at top free agents other teams do not retain with the franchise tag. Most of the best free agents are defensive players, but there likely won't be much for pass rushers.
Even if the Colts miss out on major free agents, they should be able to make upgrades to their line on both sides of the ball, and perhaps to their secondary too. There are not great options for receivers, but adding a veteran or two would make sense.
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