The Portland Trail Blazers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a three-six matchup at the Moda Center on April 14 at 12:30 P.S.T. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum look to redeem themselves after 10-straight playoff losses and an embarrassing sweep to the New Orleans Pelicans just a year ago, while Russell Westbrook and Paul George will try to get over the first round hurdle for the first time as a unit.
OKC swept the season series, 4-0. But these games weren't blow outs, with one contest being decided by two points and another in overtime.
These teams don't like each other, and there's plenty of room for an exciting series to emerge.
Here are three things to watch for in Blazers-Thunder:
Which Paul George will we get?
The Thunder's Paul George came out this season swinging. Before the All-Star Break, the forward was amid a masterful year and clearly lodged between Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden in the MVP race. His 28.7 points, eight boards, and 4.1 assists per game, along with his 40.6% shooting from deep, propelled OKC to a 37-20 record and a spot among the Western Conference's elite teams. His clamp-down defense and dynamic offense led the Thunder the league's third best defense (105.2) and 13th ranked offense (110.4).
Since suffering a shoulder injury against the Denver Nuggets on February 26, the forward has been less effective. He has continued playing at an All-NBA level but seen significant dips in his 3-point percentage (down to 33.8%) and plus-minus (going from +8.3 to +1.9). As a team, the Thunder have slipped accordingly. They've dropped to the 11th ranked defense (108.6) and 25th ranked offense (108.0). They are 11-12 in the 23 games following George's shoulder mishap.
The sharp declines have led many to wonder if George's career-year covered many of the Thunder's deficiencies from the outset.
Still, the Thunder remain a solid defensive team. Plus, George and Westbrook should give OKC plenty of hope for their postseason offense.
Even with George only playing at an All-NBA level, the Trail Blazers will have their hands full. If George can return to his MVP-caliber heights, the Thunder should reemerge as contenders and make quick work of Portland.
How will Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum handle the Thunder's blitz-y defense?
The Portland Trail Blazers' sweep at the hands of the Pelicans last season was in large part due to New Orleans' Head Coach Alvin Gentry's gameplan. He swarmed Lillard and McCollum with double-teams, forcing them to pass or make plays under substantial pressure. Their teammates failed to step up, and they failed to maintain the levelheaded approaches we expect from them.
On the surface, this matchup against the Thunder is like a make-up test for Rip City's star guards. Only this time, the tandem will face even better personnel who specialize in blitzing pick-and-roll ball handlers and using their length to deflect passes:
https://youtu.be/q_PeUhbAd9I
Lillard has spoken about readying himself for the doubles and pressure upcoming in these playoffs. And, to his credit, he has looked calmer in attacking these situations throughout the regular season. But until we see him do it on the bigger stage, it's impossible to know how he'll actually react.
While the smart money is on a cerebral player like Dame to have a couple counters on hand, McCollum feels less trustrworthy. Should he find himself on the end of constant doubles, the shoot-first guard will be tested. He will need to look for the open man, not the open shot.
Oklahoma City ranked first in steals per game this season (9.3) and will no doubt look to hound Portland into turnovers. Dame and CJ's response to this will be a major tipping point for the series.
Can Enes Kanter stay on the floor?
Oh, the defensive liability that is Enes Kanter. To be fair, the Turkish center is better at going straight up and bothering opponents in the post than he is given credit. But it is his cinderblock feet in pick-and-roll coverage that have really garnered him his infamous reputation.
The Blazers acquired the big man around the trade deadline after the New York Knicks waived him. And after starting center Jusuf Nurkic went down with a gruesome fracture to his left leg, the former Knick has taken the Bosnian Beast's position in the lineup. Although Kanter is not the same two-way guy or high-post passer as Nurk, he can light it up on the low post. Portland needs these points from their new big man, as Nurkic accounted for over 13% of the Blazers' total scoring before going down.
But if Kanter is leaking points on the other end, his scoring becomes useless. And he will have a difficult time staying on the floor if OKC attacks him relentlessly with George, who, per NBA.com, averages 1.02 points per possession when running the pick-and-roll. He places in the 91st percentile for this action.
Piling on, the Thunder's big man in Steven Adams will make it all the more difficult for Kanter on the block.
If Kanter isn't scoring and becomes George's primary target on offense, we could see the seven-footer marching his cinderblocks back to the bench for extended periods of time.
Prediction:
The series will be a gritty battle between two high-powered Western Conference teams, but the OKC Thunder should pull away with this one in six. One loss for a huge performance from Lillard, and another for a 5-28 clunker from Westbrook. The Trail Blazers' postseason losing streak should end this year, but their first round exits will be pushed to three in a row.
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