Following a surprising Game 1 loss, the Milwaukee Bucks woke up from their slumber against the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic and won the next four games to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
The red-hot Miami Heat await the Bucks after a four-game demolition of the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers in the first round. The Bucks and Heat took on different roads heading into their semis showdown.
Milwaukee was expected to steamroll the competition after last year’s letdown in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks did just that, racing to an NBA-best 56-17 slate. The Heat, on the other hand, weren't pegged to become the powerhouse they were in the 2019-20 campaign.
Miami has exceeded expectations, thanks in large part to the arrival of Jimmy Butler and the emergence of Bam Adebayo.
While the gritty Heat team will likely put up a much better fight against the Bucks than the Magic did, it’s still hard to pick against Milwaukee in this one. The Bucks have been on a mission since Day 1, and the Heat will just be another team standing in their way.
Here are three reasons why the Bucks will avoid an upset against the Heat.
Greek Freak
Need we say more? The newly crowned Defensive Player of the Giannis Antetokounmpo is guaranteed to be the best player on the floor on almost every given night.
No team has yet to figure out how to stop the Greek freight train when he picks up steam going to the basket. The 6-foot-11 forward averaged monstrous numbers of 30.6 points and 16.0 rebounds in five games against the Magic.
Miami is a pretty good defensive team, but there’s not a guy on that roster who will be able to truly hold down the reigning MVP. Bam Adebayo has been billed as a so-called “Giannis Stopper” because of his size and athleticism, but he hasn't shown he can consistently do that over a playoff series.
As good as Jimmy Butler is on that end of the floor, he’ll be giving up a major size disadvantage against Antetokounmpo. Giannis has been able to outmuscle most 7-footers in the paint, and he’ll likely do the same against the 6-foot-7 Butler.
Sending doubles doesn't really work against the Greek Freak since he also has the court vision to find open teammates, who are all capable of draining triples.
Plus, fellow All-Star Khris Middleton can heat up in a hurry if left unchecked.
Moreover, Giannis will simply be a game-changer on defense against Miami. He has the length, speed, and athleticism to chase the Heat’s surplus of shooters. It might be a short series for head coach Erik Spoelstra’s wards if they can’t find a way to slow down Giannis.
Miami will get bullied in the paint
The Bucks employ one of the biggest lineups in the league, while the Heat are known to embrace going small.
The faster Miami crew could definitely wreak some havoc, but they’ll be at a big disadvantage once Milwaukee slows down the pace of the game. Apart from Giannis, who moves like a guard but is built like a truck, the Bucks have legitimate 7-footers in the Lopez twins.
Bam Adebayo, meanwhile, is the only true “banger” in that Heat lineup.
The Bucks averaged 49.3 points in the paint per game in the regular season, good for ninth in the league. The Heat, on the other hand, got most of their points outside the perimeter and tallied just 43.9 points per game in the shaded lane, which ranked 28th.
The Bucks have been susceptible to the 3-ball of late, but they will certainly key in on Miami’s biggest long-distance strength. The fifth-seeded team will be in big trouble if those won’t fall, considering they won’t be able to outpoint the Bucks in the paint.
The Bucks have also been the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA this season. The Heat have actually done an admirable job on the boards all season and into the playoffs, but Milwaukee has the advantage here.
The Bucks already got their wake-up call
Some pundits believe that the Magic’s Game 1 upset showed a weakness in Milwaukee’s supposedly impenetrable armor. But in reality, losing their first playoff game this season against the eighth-seeded team was the best thing to ever happen.
While most people expected a clean sweep for the Bucks, it proved that no team is unbeatable. They bounced back beautifully in the next four games and returned to their formidable pre-bubble form. For Milwaukee to avenge last year’s disappointing exit, they cannot afford to mess around one bit.
As history suggests, even the best teams in the league need that wake-up call every once in a while just to get them going. Luckily for the Bucks, theirs came quite early.
That sentiment is even more important in the semifinals against an upset-minded and no-nonsense team like Miami.
It’s truly a championship-or-bust type of season for Milwaukee, especially with Antetokounmpo’s free agency looming in the future. An early elimination would no doubt hurt Milwaukee’s chances of retaining its franchise player.
The Bucks know they are the better team on paper, and they must simply play to their potential to advance to the next round.
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