Perhaps the biggest surprise of the NBA playoffs so far was not that the Miami Heat defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, but how dominant they looked while doing it.
After shattering the Bucks’ aura of invincibility in a Game 1 win, they clamped down on reigning MVP and Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo and his teammates. It’s not as if all the games in the series were blowouts. It’s just that even when Milwaukee was ahead, it felt like it was only a matter of time before Jimmy Butler and the Heat would come roaring back and snatch the victory. And that’s exactly what they did in taking down the Bucks in five games.
The Heat, however, faces a different challenge in the Eastern Conference Finals in the Boston Celtics, a team coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Toronto Raptors. While Milwaukee’s lineup is built to complement and maximize the talents of its star, the Celtics have more than one weapon capable of taking over games in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker. Boston has also been here before, having reached the Conference Finals two years ago. But after beating the league's best team, Miami's confidence has soared, and it has relished its role as an underdog in the postseason. Against the Celtics, they seem primed to pull off another upset and make the Finals for the first time since the days of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
Here are three reasons why the Heat can beat the Celtics in what will likely be a thrilling series:
1. Their 3-point shooting has shown no signs of cooling down
The 3-pointer is usually identified as the primary weapon in the Houston Rockets’ arsenal, but the Heat have also used it effectively during the regular season and the playoffs. Miami had the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage during the regular season at 37.9-percent, and they somehow improved that number in the postseason, making 39-percent of their threes in nine games, which ranks third among playoff teams.
The Heat have more than just one long-range threat, with players like Jimmy Butler (50-percent), Jae Crowder (40-percent), rookie Tyler Herro (40-percent), Duncan Robinson (39.3-percent), and Goran Dragic (38.1-percent) all shooting well from beyond the arc in the playoffs. This is a team that lives and dies by the three, and they are alive and well and in the Conference Finals thanks to those scorching shooting percentages. Robinson, in particular, has been a revelation this season, with catch-and-shoot threes emerging as his specialty. The 26-year old made more than 46-percent of his 513 catch-and-shoot threes this season, per ESPN, something no other player has done.
Boston, however, seems particularly built to cool down the Heat’s white-hot shooting from beyond the arc. They held opponents to just 34-percent from 3-point range during the regular season, and have ramped up their defense in the postseason, holding the Philadelphia 76ers and the Raptors to just 30.5-percent from long distance, the best mark among playoff teams. The Celtics can throw Marcus Smart, Tatum, and Brown at the Heat’s shooters, but they are too many of them, and the numbers suggest that their hot shooting isn’t merely an outlier that will drop off a cliff anytime soon.
2. They can throw multiple defenders at the Celtics’ scorers
The three-headed monster of Tatum, Brown, and Walker has wreaked havoc on defenses so far in the playoffs. The 22-year old Tatum has been the Celtics’ top offensive player in the playoffs, putting 25.3 points on 44.7-percent shooting, 10.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Brown, another young talent, isn’t too far behind, averaging 21 points on 43.4-percent shooting, 7.6 rebounds, and two assists in the Celtics’ 11 games. Walker, who joined the team from the Charlotte Hornets in the offseason, has meshed well with his younger teammates, averaging 19.6 points on 45.1-percent shooting, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists.
But while the Sixers and Raptors struggled to stop the Celtics’ stars, the Heat may have enough bodies they can throw at the trio to try to slow them down. Aside from Butler, Miami has another All-Star in Bam Adebayo, who has shown that he is a capable defender and can shadow Brown and Tatum. The Heat’s trade deadline acquisition of Andre Iguodala and Crowder can also help in defending the Celtics’ scorers. This was evident in the teams’ third regular-season meeting last August 4. The Celtics won their first two regular-season meetings, but the Heat won their most recent one, 112-106, even with Butler sitting out. Iguodala and Crowder played big minutes for Coach Erik Spoelstra in that win and made a difference on the defensive end. The playoffs are a different battle from the regular season, of course, but the Heat have shown they have the tools to keep up with the Celtics’ deadly trio of scorers.
3. Jimmy Butler is ready to prove doubters wrong once more
Following their Game 5 win over the Bucks, when asked about whether the team has played its best basketball yet, Jimmy Butler said, via ESPN, that the Heat still hasn’t.
“I don't think we've played a full 48-minute game yet. And that what's promising. When we do lock in and decide to play from start to finish, I think the game would be a lot easier. I don't think it's happened yet, but we have to next round.”
– Jimmy Butler on the Heat playing their best basketball
If Butler’s statement is to be believed and that the Heat can still get better, it is a scary prospect for any team that they will face. If their level of play wasn’t at 100 percent and was enough to beat the league’s best regular-season team and reigning MVP, it’s interesting to see how much more they can improve. Butler, in particular, has played like a man on a mission in the playoffs, averaging a team-leading 21.8 points on 47.7-percent shooting, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. He has also stepped up his game against the Bucks, doing a little bit of everything for Miami, including guarding Antetokounmpo and being Miami’s clutch performer.
Perhaps the most indelible moment of the playoffs so far for the Heat was Butler making two pressure-packed free throws with no time remaining in Game 2 to give his team a 2-0 series lead against Milwaukee. He has also proven that he can take over games, as he did in the fourth quarter of Game 3, when he outscored the entire Bucks team by himself in the fourth quarter, 17-13. With another challenge looming in the Celtics, and with experts again writing them off, now seems like another opportunity for Butler to play with a chip on his shoulder and prove that the Heat deserves to be one of the last teams standing in the playoffs.
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