There has been a ton of reporting recently on the possibility of James Harden reuniting with his former GM Daryl Morey as part of a blockbuster Harden-Ben Simmons sign-and-trade this coming offseason. With Kyrie Irving serving as a part-time player and Kevin Durant now dealing with an MCL sprain which figures to sideline him through the All-Star break, the vision of “scary hours” has felt more and more like this unobtainable fantasy for Nets fans than a reality.
Could it be possible that the Nets break up their Big 3 before it even gets a fair chance? Don't count on it.
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
3 reasons there won't be a James Harden-Ben Simmons trade
3) The Kyrie Irving situation figures to resolve one way or the other
Folks like Jake Fischer at Bleacher Report, Sam Amick of The Athletic, Marc Stein via Substack, Brian Windhorst and Marc J. Spears at ESPN, and others have given us reason to wonder if Harden could have a new home come next fall.
The first thing usually talked about is something having to do with Kyrie Irving. So, could this part-time player thing become frustrating enough to drive Harden out of town?
Reporter: "Do you talk to Kyrie at all about 'hey, we need you?'
James Harden: "He knows that. He knows that."
Reporter: "Do you talk to him at all about vaccination?"
Harden: "Nah."
(via @DavidEarly)pic.twitter.com/2Mui8lKnmR
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) January 8, 2022
The few times we've seen Harden appear frustrated this year have come after repetitive questions about officiating (rules targeting anti-basketball moves) or the umpteenth question regarding his teammate's vaccination status.
But there's a good chance this problem has some type of resolution by July. For example, if the Nets win the championship with Irving as a part-time player, questions of that being possible will have been answered. Nets owner Joe Tsai and company might figure, “Let's run it back, maybe something will change in terms of local mandates one day, if not we can still win.”
If the Nets come up short and maybe lose a crucial home game where Kyrie isn't eligible to play, that might be so frustrating for everyone that Brooklyn's front office decides they simply cannot offer a max extension for a part-time player. In that scenario, it feels far more likely they'd look to sign-and-trade Irving and build around Kevin Durant and James Harden.
In both of these title and disaster scenarios, we have some resolution where there are no part-time players on the roster come next season.
If Harden were to drop an ultimatum of some kind, the team would be wise to pick the full-time player who has made it clear basketball is his first love. It's difficult to image a scenario where Irving's vaccination stance becomes the main reason Harden is dealt.
2) Harden might have to turn down a record-setting salary to leave
Here was how Brian Lewis of the New York Post put it back in September: “If Harden waits until after the season, he could re-sign and shatter the all-time NBA record with an eye-watering $270 million windfall.”
A team that didn't possess Harden's Bird Rights, whether that be a cap space team or a team looking to sign-and-trade Ben Simmons, could only offer the 2018 MVP a four-year deal with accompanying 5 percent raises. The Nets can offer a five-year deal with 8 percent raises. If the $119 million projected salary cap goes into effect, that would mean a team like the Sixers could offer the 10-year vet up to 35% of their cap, peaking around $180 million over four seasons. That's about $90 million less than the figure Brian Lewis noted.
Kevin Durant is playing like an MVP. Leaving KD and that much money in what's likely to be Harden's last max-level payday would be unprecedented. You'd start to see those memes that Harden turned down more in one offseason than the entire career earnings of some random All-Star.
Harden just demonstrated that you can have your cake and eat it too (I'm resisting out-of-shape jokes). He accepted a supermax contract in Houston a few years ago, and when the championship aspirations walked out the door with Chris Paul and Daryl Morey, he simply asked for a trade and landed in an ideal scenario. He could do the same in Brooklyn. Take the money, give it a year or two, then ask for a trade come 2024 if Durant leaves you first.
OK, but are we sure the Nets will offer Harden that much? The sure answer here is no, we are not. It's certainly possible the Nets could be looking at what has been a down year for The Beard, and the specter of paying him $50 million per season through his late 30s is just too outrageous for them.
But it's hard to see them looking Durant in the eye and telling him, “I know you signed your max extension with the idea we were going to be perennial contenders, but we're letting James go. Don't worry, you can depend on Kyrie.”
That wouldn't land well.
But would they try to top all other offers and still save a little?
They could structure his deal so that it topped out at $250 million. That would still be $70 million more than a rival team could offer, but it would save them at least $20M in salary and possibly much more in the form of dodged repeater fees as a luxury tax team.
1) Kevin Durant is the perfect fit alongside James Harden
Harden would have to want out for a sign-and-trade to take place. But he would be snubbing his nose at so much money he'd have to be sure he was finding a better fit. Who's a better running mate to win a championship with than KD?
As someone who has watched every minute Harden has played this season and watched every postgame interview, I don't get the sense Harden is unhappy. That may not be worth much, but it's something. Durant was visibly disgusted at times his final season in Golden State. We haven't seen anything close here from Harden.
Joel Embiid is not a spot-up player who likes to position himself beyond the arc. Harden loves to attack a spread floor from isolation. Durant is comfortable anywhere on the floor. Harden has always thrived with a lob threat in the pick-and-roll game, and Embiid's strengths come not as a roll-man but as a pick-and-pop or isolation big.
As devastating as an Embiid-Harden combo would be, and it would be devastating, there are more concerns with that fit than immediately meets the eye.
It's difficult to imagine a team offering Harden a better shot at a championship than one who could offer Kevin Durant. Going back to their Oklahoma days, these two superstars have nothing but unfinished business in front of them. Whatever happens with Kyrie Irving, it makes sense that Slim Reaper and The Beard will want to make as much money as possible to win a championship or three together.
And after all of that consideration, it's also possible that KD simply puts his size 18 foot down and makes sure Harden doesn't go anywhere. So, the bottom line is a James Harden-Ben Simmons sign-and-trade deal is a major long shot that's unlikely to happen.
Follow Us
Subscribe