The Golden State Warriors are favorites against the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals, and rightfully so, but there's plenty of room for optimism for Canada's team yet.
Here are three reasons why the Raptors, in the franchise's first ever Finals appearance, can dethrone the Warriors' dynasty.
3. Defensive Versatility
The Portland Trail Blazers were overmatched in far more ways than one in the Western Conference Finals, but their biggest pitfall against the Warriors, unsurprisingly, was a lack of multiple quality defenders and overall defensive versatility.
Golden State's offense remains incredibly difficult – or perhaps even more difficult, if you believe P.J. Tucker – to stop without Kevin Durant due to the imminent shooting threat of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, playmaking mastery of Draymond Green, and the pace with which Steve Kerr's team plays in both half court and transition.
Toronto is the rare foe that has the horses defensively to check the two-time defending champions on a positional basis. But even more important in the Finals is the Raptors' ability to switch across four and sometimes five positions without bending the defense until it breaks.
Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam are better equipped to check Durant than any pair of teammates in basketball, but can also switch onto Curry and Thompson or neutralize threats across the floor while roaming off Green and other non-shooters. Danny Green will surely see time guarding all three of Golden State's marksmen, and the same goes for Kyle Lowry.
Serge Ibaka can step out onto the perimeter in a pinch, and even Marc Gasol showed he was comfortable getting high up the floor deny passes beyond the arc in the Eastern Conference Finals. The potential addition of O.G. Anunoby looms.
But more significant than the Raptors being able to hold up individually against the Warriors' stars is the scheme versatility their rare defensive personnel makes possible – always key against Golden State, but especially in the Finals given the likelihood of Durant crashing the party mid-series.
Toronto could switch only off-ball screens and meet pick-and-rolls at the level of the screener. Nick Nurse can take a different approach by switching across four, or depending how small he wants to play, five positions. Maybe the Raptors trap every Curry pick-and-roll. Nurse can sic Leonard on Curry or Durant as circumstances of time and score warrant, too.
There's no way to limit the Warriors for a full 48 minutes, let alone a seven-game series. At full-strength, and sometimes even less so if jumpers are falling, they'll find an answer for everything.
But Toronto has a collection of answers defensively, too, that almost no other team in the league can match.
2. Kevin Durant's Injury
The two-time reigning Finals MVP will miss Game 1 of the Finals, and at this point seems unlikely to play in Game 2, either, after it was revealed Golden State didn't make the decision on whether he would travel north of the border until Tuesday.
Even if the best-case scenario comes to fruition and Durant is available for the second leg of back-to-back games at Scotiabank Arena, his absence for the first will drastically affect how this series plays out.
Reminder: Golden State, for the first of its historic five consecutive Finals runs, doesn't have the luxury of home-court advantage. The champs have three chances to win a single road game in the Finals, and they'll be without Durant for at least the first one. Momentum is huge in basketball, and Scotiabank Arena will be in an absolute frenzy on Thursday night.
Would anyone be all that surprised if the Raptors, rested and invigorated after a hard-fought win over the Milwaukee Bucks, take it to the short-handed Warriors, who will have not played in nearly two weeks, come Game 1?
There's also no telling for sure just how effective Durant will be once he's actually healthy enough to play. Expecting him to go toe-to-toe with Leonard and come out ahead would be foolish. The Raptors, as mentioned above, have many different defenders they can throw at him, and that's before considering any trade-off on the other side of the ball accompanying his return.
Durant's mere availability should and will remain the bigger story, but his performance once on the floor, after more than three weeks away from the game, will go a long way toward deciding who will hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
1. Kawhi Leonard
Averaging nearly 30 points per game on solid efficiency against the regular season's top-ranked defense, in an Eastern Conference Finals marked for its unrelenting stress and physicality, makes it easy to forget that Leonard's most valuable contribution versus the Bucks might have come on the other end of the floor.
Shifting the former Defensive Player of the Year onto Giannis Antetokounmpo from Game 3 onward completely changed the tenor of that series, and Leonard, bad left leg and all, didn't suffer offensively as the result of him shouldering such a burden. Amazing.
Curry could still prove the most valuable player in the Finals, but he simply can't impose his will on 94 feet of the court the way Leonard can.
That singular potential trump card wouldn't exist for the Raptors if Durant was healthy, but it certainly does without him, and maybe will continue to as he re-acclimates to the speed of postseason basketball.
At many times throughout the playoffs, Leonard has looked like the best player in the world.
It shouldn't shock anyone if he proves it by leading Toronto to a title.
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