New York Yankees ace right-hander Gerrit Cole finished second to then-Toronto Blue Jays starter Robbie Ray in the 2021 AL Cy Young award vote. It's the second time in the last three years that Cole has finished second in the running, as he fell just short to teammate Justin Verlander back in 2019 when the two were on the Houston Astros. Cole looked like the undisputed favorite to take home the hardware last year, though he struggled to replicate his first-half performance, with some attributing his lack of success to baseball's crackdown on the sticky substances used by hurlers. Cole, for his part, has made it clear that he feels that baseball's strict rules for pitchers won't affect his production. There's reason to believe him, as the Yankees ace figured out a way to pitch differently this past season while finding the same amount of success. Perhaps that, along with Cole's elite arsenal of pitches, will be enough to vault him to the top of the AL CY Young leaderboard in 2022. That said, here are three reasons why Cole will take home the hardware in 2022.
3 Reasons Gerrit Cole Will Win Al Cy Young Award In 2022
3. The AL CY Young competition isn't as strong for Cole
Baseball has changed the way it evaluates pitchers in recent years. Wins used to be looked at as the ultimate determining factor in how good of a season a starter had. While still important, it's clear that other statistics, such as ERA, carry more weight than wins in showing how successful a pitcher was in a given season. 2021 was dominated by National League pitchers. The first six starters on the 2021 ERA leaderboard hailed from the NL, which is a staggering level of disparity between the leagues. There's no guarantee that that will continue, though there's reason to believe that the National League will be well-represented once again, given that aces such as New York Mets' star Jacob deGrom and San Diego Padres righty Yu Darvish, normally towards the top of the board, were not among the leaders. This means that Cole, almost by default, will have an easier path to the Cy Young award simply by pitching in the AL. Old teammate Verlander looks good this spring, but hasn't pitched in nearly two years. Ray is in Seattle now- and he doesn't exactly have a track record of winning Cy Youngs. Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox could be in the mix, though he is 34 years old with a ton of innings on his arm. Cole is the safest bet of the bunch.
2. Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher in the league
Building off of the previous point, Cole is the safest bet because he's the best pitcher in the AL. Whether his incredible first half was due to his use of sticky substances, it's hard to ignore the numbers he put up. In 18 starts, the Yankees ace compiled a 9-4 record with a 2.68 ERA, a miniscule 0.93 WHIP, and 147 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings pitched. In other words, he was putting up numbers that were reminiscent of his excellent seasons in Houston, production that some thought he wouldn't be able to equal again. When Cole is in the zone like that, he is almost untouchable. Look no further than his month of April last year, where he struck out an astonishing 62 batters while walking just two. There was simply no hitting Cole- and he is talented enough to sustain that level for an entire season. If he does, he will almost certainly be taking home the 2022 Cy Young award.
1. The sticky substance crackdown won't affect the Yankees ace
The MLB is clearly committed to pitchers following the rules, as the league announced further restrictions on pitchers, which will focus on umpired examining pitchers' hands more closely. Many have speculated that Cole, whose second half numbers paled in comparison to his first half, was affected by the rules change more than any pitcher. His ERA was higher, and he allowed more home runs. However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that Cole found ways to pitch differently, while still maintaining his success. For one thing, Cole posted more strikeouts per nine innings- 12.8 compared to 11.6- in the second half than in the first half. The Yankees ace also earned the highest groundball rate of his career per Fangraphs, which bodes well for his chances of keeping the ball in the park over an entire season. Cole also threw his changeup, a pitch that hitters had immense troubles with, more than he ever has. That means that Cole legitimately has five pitches he can trust, a scary thought for opposing hitters. The Yankees ace could author one of his best seasons yet en route to taking home the 2022 AL Cy Young award.
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