Trevor Lawrence had one of the best college football careers at Clemson University in recent memory, and, unsurprisingly, expecations for him are sky-high as he enters his rookie season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Lawrence went 34-2 in his career at Clemson, and in total finished with 10,098 passing yards, 90 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions on a 66.6% completion rate.
He fits the archetypal standard of quarterback physical measurables, as stands in at a towering 6'6″ and 213 pounds, and also runs a very solid 4.78 second 40 yard dash. He also possesses the intangibles that elevate good, even Pro Bowl level quarterbacks, into MVP caliber, generational talent-type QBs, as he showed in big games like his 2019 National Championship win over Alabama University.
Lawrence will be the starter to begin the year with Jacksonville, and he inherits a roster that is not suffering in terms of skill position talent by any means, although their defense and O-line have been subpar in recent seasons. Still, there's definitely enough talent around for the “Tank for Trevor” to be a Year 1 success.
Here are 4 bold predictions for Trevor Lawrence's rookie season.
4. Lawrence wins in his NFL debut
This isn't the hottest take out there, as the Jaguars' Week 1 matchup comes against the lowly Houston Texans, who will be without their star QB Deshaun Watson. However, it's still incredibly difficult to win one's NFL debut under the bright lights, especially as the most highly touted quarterback prospect within at least the last 5 seasons.
Lawrence, though, as mentioned earlier, has a penchant for showing up in big games when the most pressure is on him. Houston has a below average pass rush that should give him plenty of time to find his talented receiving core down the field, and James Robinson should be able to keep a decent running game afloat, despite fellow top draft pick Travis Etienne's season-ending injury.
3. Lawrence will facilitate huge seasons for D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault
Chark and Shenault are two of the league's premier young talents at the wide receiver position, but their potential has been largely untapped thus far due to suboptimal quarterback play. This year, though, all of that will change.
With Lawrence slinging the rock, Shenault should see the biggest boost in production. He's a big-bodied player who's tough to bring down, at 6'1″ and 227 pounds, and can turn any short catch underneath into a big play. One of the most under-appreciated parts of Trevor's game is that his throws in the short-to-intermediate range are almost always right on the money, as he regularly hits receivers in stride to allow them to turn up the field and get great YAC. Quarterbacks who accumulate yardage from YAC are often seen as reliant on receivers to do all the work, but even among professionals, a QB's consistency in hitting their guys in stride can make a big difference.
We all know that D.J. Chark is a great talent, as we saw in his 73 catch, 1,008 yard, 8 TD campaign in 2019. However, Lawrence will easily be the best talent he's every played with, and could easily break into 1,200 yard territory in 2021. He's truly a complete receiver with the talent to be a bonafide WR1.
2. Lawrence wins NFL Rookie of the Year
As we saw when Justin Herbert won Rookie of the Year last year even despite Justin Jefferson's historic obliteration of rookie receiving records, ROTY voting, like MVP voting, is heavily skewed towards favoring quarterbacks to win. Granted, Herbert obliterated several records himself.
Knowing this, and knowing the immense talent that this rookie class has at the quarterback position, it's hard to see anyone besides the core five QBs of this class winning the hardware – Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, and Zach Wilson. Lawrence already has a leg up on everyone besides Wilson, since those two are the only ones who enter the season as starters for their respective teams. Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, and Jimmy Garoppolo are all decent competition to dethrone as well, so we most likely won't see the other three QBs until at least a few weeks into the year.
So, odds are that it will come down to either Trevor Lawrence or Wilson. Lawrence inherits a much better group of players to work with, as Shenault, Chark, Robinson, and Marvin Jones is an excellent receiving core, even in a vacuum. However, that group looks even better in comparison to that of the Jets, with Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder. Give me the more talented QB with the better team.
1. Jaguars win 8 games
The Jaguars schedule in 2021 isn't too intimidating, as they have 7 contests against teams who made the playoffs last year, but several against teams who stunk it up as well. Squaring off against the Texans (2x), Broncos, Bengals, Falcons, Jets, and Patriots should all especially be games Jacksonville can win.
8 wins is a lot to expect, but an upset here or there, good luck with injuries, and solid performances in the games they should win on paper will be enough to get the Jaguars a sniff at playoff contention.
They won't quite get there this year, but 2021 will be a very promising season for Trevor Lawrence and Jaguars nation.
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