The Utah Jazz got what they wanted. No matter how much they deny it, the Jazz orchestrated a superb tank job to fall into the sixth seed. In doing so, they managed to avoid seeing the Houston Rockets, the team that has knocked them out in either the first or second round over the last two playoffs, until the Western Conference Finals.
Nonetheless, the Jazz still face a formidable first round match-up in the Denver Nuggets. Though the Nuggets hold the third seed, homecourt advantage is essentially nonexistent throughout the 2020 playoffs with all teams playing under one roof in the Disney World complex. Thus, these 2020 playoffs are prime for upsets, and the Jazz may just end up sending the heavily favored Nikola Jokic-powered Nuggets out of Orlando early.
Here are four reasons why the Utah Jazz will defeat the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2020 NBA playoffs:
1. They have the speed advantage to counter Denver's size
In a league that's going the small-ball route, the Denver Nuggets are experimenting on the opposite direction. Denver arguably has the biggest team in the NBA. Their point guard is a 6-foot-4 Jamal Murray. Superstar big man Nikola Jokic is 7-feet, while promising rookies Michael Porter Jr. and Bol Bol, both of whom have emerged for the Nuggets in the bubble, stand 6-foot-10 and 7-foot-2, respectively.
Denver likely won't field in the all-big man lineup they tried out in the bubble scrimmage games, but their size across all positions is an advantage they can utilize. The Jazz, however, will likely counter with their speed. They have smaller but faster guards in Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, and Jordan Clarkson who can get past Denver's bigger guards and create plays by moving the ball.
Mitchell, Conley, and Clarkson are all capable of creating their own shots and creating for their teammates as well. With their ability to penetrate to the basket and attract defenses inside the paint, Utah could use their speed to make the Nuggets work and scramble on defense.
2. Denver's poor defense, especially on three-pointers
The Nuggets had the worst defense among all 22 teams in the bubble. They ranked dead last in defensive rating (121.7) and were also the worst team in opposing three-point percentage (44.8 percent), per NBA.com.
This is something the Jazz can certainly utilize to their advantage. Utah finished the 2019-20 season as the best team in terms of three-point shooting percentage (38 percent). In the restart, however, the Jazz dropped to just 35.6 percent as a team.
Nonetheless, Utah used the three-ball more than they usually do in their lone bubble game against the Nuggets just a week ago. The Jazz hoisted up 55 three-pointers in that double-OT thriller, way more than their overall season average of just 35.2 per game. It may just be a one-game sample size, but it seems like Utah knows what it needs to do against Denver's defense in their upcoming 7-game series.
Furthermore, despite the loss of arguably their top three-point shooter in Bojan Bogdanovic, the Jazz have further embraced the three-point shot since the season restarted. Utah attempted the 2nd most three-pointers in the bubble next to the Houston Rockets.
With that, the Jazz can utilize this weapon to their advantage given Denver's deficiencies in defending the three.
3. Mike Conley is a big game player in the playoffs
Mike Conley's first season with the Utah Jazz has been, for the large part, underwhelming. Many expected Conley to be a major contributor for them this season. However, the usually efficient floor general struggled from the field throughout the year.
Prior to the restart, the 32-year old averaged just 14.0 points and 4.3 assists, while shooting just 40.6 percent from the field. In these bubble games, however, Conley has managed to increase his production to 18.0 points and 5.0 assists on slightly better efficiency at 43.2 percent from the field.
Utah lost second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic to surgery right before the restart. Conley will certainly need to serve as the 2nd or 3rd scoring option for the Jazz for the rest of their postseason run.
Conley has shown that he is capable of performing in big playoff games. The 6-foot-1 guard played extremely well in his most recent playoff series in 2017. In their first round series against the San Antonio Spurs, Conley averaged 24.7 points and 7.0 assists across six games. This included a 35-point outing in a close Game 4 win, where he also made a clutch floater to force overtime.
With that, the Jazz have another option they can go to in late game situations aside from Donovan Mitchell.
4. Utah is aware of its shortcomings, especially against Denver
Utah has never defeated Denver this season. So why would they tank their way to the sixth seed to face them in the first round? Well, for first, they want to avoid Houston at all costs and they succeeded in that department. Moreover, they match up well with Denver. Despite losing in all three regular season games this season, they believe they know what it takes to take the Nuggets down in the postseason.
All of Utah's defeats against Denver this season came within six points or fewer. In all those losses, the Jazz relinquished a huge lead at some point in the game, only to fall in the end.
In their first encounter, Utah let Denver go on a 27-1 run bridging across the third and fourth quarters and lost 106-100. Their second match-up saw pretty much the same, with Utah unable to hold on to a nine-point lead with seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter as Denver stole yet another one despite being short-handed.
Their final match-up just last week saw the Jazz squander an 18-point lead in the first half. Denver stormed their way back in the second half, managed to force overtime, and squeezed by in the extra session to sweep the season series, 134-132.
The Jazz are well aware of their short-comings in these three regular season games against Denver. They know that they are capable of playing consistently on both sides of the ball in good stretches. Utah has shown to themselves on multiple occasions that they can do so against Denver. They just need to find a way to extend that stretch and hold it together until the endgame phase.
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