With the 2019 NBA Draft rapidly approaching, now is as good a time as any to really dive deep into the class. And with guys like Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, two players who had a lot of question marks entering the league, currently making their marks in the playoffs, it’s interesting to look at players that are similarly giving scouts some trouble.
Here’s a look at five boom-or-bust prospects in this year’s draft.
Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
Due to a torn meniscus, Garland played only five games as a freshman at Vanderbilt. In those five games, the 6-foot-2 Nashville native averaged 16.2 points per game on a blistering 53.7% shooting from the floor and 47.8% from the outside. Garland’s shooting is exactly what makes him enticing to NBA teams. Not only can he drill catch-and-shoot jumpers, but he is arguably the draft’s best shooter off the dribble. The success of a guy like Damian Lillard has made Garland’s skill set a hot commodity at the next level. That’s exactly why Garland is looking like a lock to go in the top 10 in this June’s draft.
Garland does, however, have some issues that are hard to ignore. The most glaring one is his lack of court awareness. Garland averaged 2.6 assists per game in his short time with the Commodores. One could argue that he didn’t have enough time to prove himself, but Garland didn’t exactly look for his teammates at the AAU level either. In 22 AAU games in 2017, Garland averaged only 4.3 assists per game. Considering he’s going to be playing the point guard position, it’s definitely concerning that he’s mostly looking for his own shot.
Also concerning for Garland is the fact that he hasn’t proven to be much of a defender. That can obviously change, but there’s a risk in using a high draft pick on a player that hasn’t proven to be much more than a scorer. If he’s not finding his teammates and can’t do his part in getting stops, there might be some regrets from the team that ends up taking him.
Cam Reddish, SF, Duke
If every player in this draft were picked based on how they looked in an open gym, Reddish would easily be the second player selected. At 6-foot-8, Reddish has the size to play both forward positions, but he moves like a guard. Of all the players in this draft, he might also have the most “NBA moves” of anybody. He hit a wide array of impressive shots at Duke, and that ability will almost certainly carry over to the next level.
The problem with Reddish is how lost he looked on the floor in his freshman season. With RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson leading the Blue Devils almost every night, Reddish struggled to adjust to being a third option. He looked out of rhythm on most nights, and he ended up shooting a lousy 35.6% from the floor and 33.3% from the outside.
For somebody that is mostly billed as a shooter right now, that’s not very good. And considering he’s likely going to be stepping into a situation where he is a third or fourth option—at best—it’s not good that he wasn’t able to make things happen with his role.
Somebody is going to draft Reddish in the lottery because of the amount of pure talent he possesses. But there have been players like him in the past, and sometimes talent doesn’t win out.
Bol Bol, C, Oregon
Bol is the son of former NBA player Manute Bol, and he shares a similar profile that has teams drooling. At the draft combine, Bol measured in at 7-foot-2 with a 7-foot-7-inch wingspan and a 9’7.5’’ standing reach. That gives him an unreal combination of size and length at the center position. Bol also has plenty of skill to boot. The big man just might be one of the best shooters in this draft, as he canned 52.0% of his threes in nine games with Oregon. Plenty of those came from NBA range, so he’s not going to have much trouble adjusting to the further three-point line.
One thing that could hurt Bol at the next level is his small frame and lack of mobility. Bol is extremely thin and could be pushed around a bit on both ends of the floor. And while he is a fluid mover offensively, he doesn’t have the type of quick feet that is required to play defense at a high level in today’s NBA. He might have decent timing as a shot blocker, but Bol will be hunted in pick-and-roll situations.
Also concerning for a guy his size is the fact that Bol missed most of his freshman season with a stress fracture in his navicular bone. Foot injuries have derailed the careers of plenty of big men, so that is yet another risk that comes with taking him in the lottery. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if a team were to bet on his ability—especially in what is a ridiculously weak NBA Draft.
Kevin Porter Jr., SG, USC
Porter Jr. is as difficult a player to evaluate as anybody projected to go outside of the lottery in this year's NBA Draft. Despite having a lot of traits you’d look for in a shooting guard, Porter Jr. averaged only 9.5 points per game in 22.1 minutes per game as a freshman at USC. He was in and out of the lineup at weird times, and he never consistently showed that he has the ability to consistently produce.
Scouts are going to find ways to talk themselves into Porter Jr., thanks to his 47.1% shooting from the floor and 41.2% shooting from three. He has a nice looking stroke and the sizzle that’ll allow him to occasionally shake his defenders. But Porter Jr. also lacks focus on the defensive end. And offensively, he doesn’t look like a guy that is well suited to play off the ball for extended periods of time.
It’ll take the perfect situation to get the best out of a guy like Porter Jr., but there are no guarantees even if he ends up somewhere with great organizational culture.
Jontay Porter, PF/C, Missouri
Porter wouldn’t be listed here if it weren’t for two horrific ACL tears that now leave him hoping to be selected somewhere at the beginning of the second round. For my money, Porter would have been a top-10 prospect in this NBA Draft had he avoided a second tear. He has the perfect set of skills for a modern NBA big, as he is a guy that can really pass the ball, knows how to get his own shot and shows promise as a developing stretch big. He does all of that while also being able to hold his own defensively.
Drafting Porter could, however, end up being a wasted selection. The team that ultimately takes a chance on him would be wise to give him a redshirt year, like the Sacramento Kings did with the oft-injured Harry Giles. If Porter is forced into action too soon, he would be a major risk for injury. And one more stroke of bad luck could be the end of what should be a promising future.
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