Given that the pool of running backs with a guaranteed consistent workload is so shallow, missing on one of your first RB picks in fantasy drafts can make the position a thorn in your lineup's side for the entire year. Because of this, we often see running back ADPs creep higher than warranted, given their lack of upside or the risk that comes with them.
Identifying and avoiding these players is integral in making sure you pick backs that fit into either one of two categories: 1. early round pick with low-risk and high-upside, and 2. later-round pick with high-upside.
Here are 5 running backs who are currently being overvalued at their ESPN ADP as of August 28th (PPR scoring).
5. Melvin Gordon III ā Denver Broncos (ADP 99, RB31)
Gordon is sort of like the opposite of the second category of backs, as he enters the 2021 season with a clear role in the Denver backfield, but lacks any real upside. He finished as last year's RB14, with a well-rounded statline of 986 rushing yards on 215 attempts (4.6 YPC), 158 yards on 32 receptions, and 10 total touchdowns. That's nothing to scoff at, as Gordon is clearly still a productive back, but those numbers are set to decline across the board this year, especially in the receptions department.
Rookie RB Javonte Williams has already shown elite pass-blocking and pass-catching prowess, and should begin the year as the full-time third-down back for the Broncos, at minimum. He also possesses great burst and contact balance, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if Williams eats into the aging Gordon's carries early in the season as well. Higher upside rushers at lower ADPs are James Conner (RB35 ADP) and Michael Carter (RB38).
4. Leonard Fournette ā Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP 88, RB30)
Fournette comes at a similar cost as Gordon, and is much more dynamic runner in this stage of their respective careers, but finds himself in a more difficult situation. He's once again locked into a timeshare with fellow back Ronald Jones, who outpaced Fournette in carries (132 to 114) in the 12 games they played together, though Fournette led the two in snaps and targets. Reports out of camp are that Fournette and Jones will have āmuch the same roleā in 2021, and newly acquired scat back Giovani Bernard to gain most of the third-down snaps.
This will hurt Fournette much more than Jones, as much of Fournette's value in 2020 came from his target dominance (56 compared to Jones' 23) as the primary third-down back. Given that Fournette finished as last year's RB32 on a points-per-game basis, and RB35 overall, look for Trey Sermon (RB39 ADP) and even Ronald Jones himself (RB37) at lower ADPs.
3. Joe Mixon ā Cincinnati Bengals (ADP 24, RB13)
The talent has never been in question for Joe Mixon. With 4.45 speed, great agility, forceful downhill running ability, and soft hands, he's everything fantasy owners could want in a complete RB1. That much has been clear in the games he's exploded in over the last few years, including 2020's 42.1 point explosion against the Jaguars in Week 4.
However, inconsistency's always been Mixon's problem, as poor O-line play and bad game scripts have been the primary causes of Mixon's 50% rate (11 out of 22) of games he's scored 12.6 points or less over the last two seasons. That, compared to only 3 games out of 22 in which he's scored 20 or more, and Mixon simply isn't worth the headache for a borderline RB1 pick. The Bengals chose to pick another wide receiver in the first round last year instead of addressing their weak line, which will also hurt Mixon's involvement in the passing game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and David Montgomery are much safer bets to finish in RB1 territory.
2. Saquon Barkley ā New York Giants (ADP 5, RB5)
As I wrote in Barkley's fantasy outlook for 2021, he has legitimate upside to be this year's RB1 if everything breaks right. But that's a lot of ifs. A lot. Barkley is coming off a torn ACL, which his recovery from is a question in itself, but, even if he does get his performance back to his usual standard, his fantasy performance is still plenty in question.
Since his finish as fantasy's RB1 in 2018, Barkley has finished with less than 10 points in 5 of the 18 games he's played in (28%), accumulated only 34 rushing yards on 19 carries. While he surely possesses the talent to explode, that low of a floor is simply not justifiable for a top 5 pick.
1. Najee Harris ā Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 16, RB11)
Harris finds himself in a similar conundrum to Barkley, as he lands with immense talent on a team that has a weak offensive line. In fact, the Giants and Steelers rank last and second-to-last in PFF's O-line rankings ahead of 2021. To make matters worse, the linemen in Pittsburgh who did grade as decent performers last year only did so in the passing game, not in run-blocking.
Holes are going to be hard to find for Harris, which could very easily render his talent useless, and, though he has dual-threat ability, the Steelers have one of the best wide receiver groups in the NFL, which won't leave many targets for Najee. Fade Harris, and look for a back with both higher upside and a higher floor at lower ADP, like Antonio Gibson.
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