The St. Louis Cardinals were one of the most polarizing teams in baseball last season. After a 47-46 start, manager Mike Matheny was fired and replaced by bench coach Mike Shildt. The Cardinals would go 6-7 in Shildt's first 13 games as interim manager before getting red-hot in August, finishing with a 22-6 record in a month that included an eight-game winning streak.
But after climbing back into the playoff race, the Cardinals folded in September. The Redbirds went 12-15 and found themselves out of postseason play for the third consecutive season.
The last time the Cardinals missed the playoffs in three straight seasons was between 1996-1999, just before the turn of the century. With plentiful young talent and a real chance at contending in the National League, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak went for it this offseason.
He made arguably the two biggest impact moves in the division, signing reliever Andrew Miller and trading for former Arizona Diamondbacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt.
The Cardinals might just be the most well-balanced team in the division, but can Miller and Goldschmidt help put them over the top?
Here are five reasons that St. Louis can win the NL Central in 2019:
1. Defensive improvements
The Cardinals committed 133 errors and posted a team fielding percentage of .978, both of which were the worst in baseball.
But do not be surprised if they are one of the better defenses in the MLB this season. For starters, they will get full seasons out of Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader, both of whom have Gold Glove potential.
In the outfield, Marcell Ozuna posted eight Defensive Runs Saved in spite of an injured throwing shoulder, according to FanGraphs. Dexter Fowler is no slouch in either, pending necessary improvements at the plate.
However, the infield will see the most consequential upgrades, mostly thanks to Goldschmidt. Instead of relying on Matt Carpenter or Jose Martinez, who were both very poor defenders at first base, the Cardinals now get a former Gold Glover at the position. Talk about an upgrade.
This will also allow Carpenter to move back to his natural position at third. Throw in DeJong and Kolten Wong, who saved 19 runs last season at second base, and suddenly the infield is stout.
Imagine going from the worst defense in baseball to one of the best in a single season. That can have a drastic impact on any club, especially a Cardinals team that is very capable of putting up runs in bunches.
2. Quality arms, top to bottom
St. Louis could once again be challenged by the health of Carlos Martinez, who has been shut down for the foreseeable future. But this pitching staff is still loaded.
The Cards offer a very interesting contrast of styles at the top of the rotation. Miles Mikolas is more of a control pitcher that relies on ground balls, while Jack Flaherty's velocity and wipeout slider could make him one of the premier strikeout pitchers in baseball.
When healthy, Martinez adds another power arm with Cy Young potential. And Michael Wacha was 8-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts last season. However his K/9 and velocity were both down last season. Can he also manage to stay healthy and reestablish his fastball against hitters this season? If both guys can make closer to 25 starts, the Cardinals should run four deep and be very tough to beat.
Adam Wainwright is the no. 5 guy rounding out the rotation, though it would hardly be a surprise to see Alex Reyes fill that spot before the end of the year.
If not, Reyes is yet another power arm in a bullpen full of them. Miller should slide into the setup role for Jordan Hicks, who will take over as closer full-time and have a chance to become one of the best young pitchers in the game. Hicks' sinker is one of the best pitches in all of baseball. He can throw it around 100 mph and the bottom totally drops out when it reaches the plate.
Aside from the flamethrowers at the back, the Redbirds also have John Brebbia and Chasen Shreve to shore up the middle innings, and Reyes and John Gant are options when they aren't making spot starts.
This could be the deepest pitching staff in the Central, which gives the Cardinals the chance to compete night in and night out.
3. Depth
This was alluded to in terms of the number of quality arms on the roster, but the Cardinals also have positional depth.
Fowler will have the chance to earn back his starting spot in right field, but St. Louis also has Jose Martinez–who hit .305 with 17 homers last year–ready to slot in at any time. Not a bad fallback.
The Cardinals can rotate Martinez with Tyler O'Neill, who posted an .803 OPS in 142 plate appearances as a 23-year-old last year.
On the infield, Yairo Munoz can play just about anywhere and hit for average, while Jedd Gyorko plays a stellar hot corner and adds home run power, despite a slight drop-off last season.
It is one thing merely to have bench players, but another entirely when each of those players is capable of playing multiple positions. This gives Shildt plenty of options with his lineup cards, which is always a good problem.
4. Goldschmidt
Sure, it's obvious enough that adding any MVP candidate to your lineup has serious ramifications, but Goldy does so much more for the Cardinals.
As previously mentioned, he totally alters the dynamic of the defense and could be the single most consequential player should St. Louis be a “worst to first” type of team defensively.
Not to mention, the dude can rake. Goldschmidt has over 200 homers in seven full big-league seasons, and has yet to post a batting average lower than .285 while being a run-producer in the middle of the order.
Goldy offers protection for Carpenter, while simultaneously being protected by Ozuna and DeJong in a lineup that could possibly have four players with 30-plus homers. Those guys should benefit just as much as he will.
The Diamondbacks made the postseason just once during Goldschmidt's tenure, but now he will play for a contender in one of the best baseball markets in the country. And with the 31-year-old in a contract year and St. Louis hoping to re-sign him, there is a sense of urgency for this team to win now.
5. Survival of the fittest?
With the offseason additions made by the Cardinals and the Reds, the NL Central might end up being the most competitive in baseball. It is not impossible to imagine every team in the division finishing over .500, with the potential for three 90-game winners in the Brewers, Cubs and Cards.
Given their balance and depth, the Cardinals may be the team that is best equipped for the rigors of such a bloodbath. Remember that this team was only 2.5 games back in late August before eventually fading. Now the team has stability and confidence in Shildt as their manager, which is as dangerous as any other asset.
With the growth of young players like Flaherty, Bader and DeJong as well as a healthy Ozuna, the Cardinals were already likely to improve. But throw in two elite players like Goldschmidt and Miller? They are legitimate threats to win the division, an maybe even the National League pennant.
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