5 Undervalued Fantasy Football Quarterbacks Based On 2021 ADP
Just like Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Lamar Jackson in 2019, and Justin Herbert this past season, there’s always huge breakouts who return dynamite value at their ADP at the quarterback position, even despite the usual predictability of the position. Having a weekly starting quarterback and stashing one in case of injury or hoping they break out and offer trade value, or even starting value on your team, can be an amazing investment at a low draft day price (or even a pickup off the waiver wire!).
Identifying these players can be somewhat difficult, however. So, here are five quarterbacks who are being undervalued based on their ADP, as of August 25th.
5. Jameis Winston – New Orleans Saints (ADP 200, QB27)
Believe it or not, it was only 2019 when Winston finished as fantasy football’s QB3, and the fourth-highest scorer overall. While that season is best known for his entrance into the “30/30 club” (touchdowns/interceptions), he only finished with less than 15 fantasy points only one week that season – showing that his talent offered a weekly floor that superseded his poor decision-making. He threw for a whopping 5,109 yards, and, though that was buoyed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers awful defense, he still completed better than 60% of his passes and showed that he has truly rare arm talent. His receiving core will be a big step down from Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but Sean Payton’s high-powered scheme with athletic pass-catchers like Tre’Quan Smith Marquez Callaway, and Alvin Kamara could certainly be enough for him to put up good numbers. If Winston is really as good as he’s looked so far in the preseason, then he could flirt with QB1 numbers and launch into weekly starter territory once Michael Thomas comes back. If you’ve got room on your bench, he’s a worthy speculative add.
4. Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers (ADP 168, QB20)
Lance has absolutely incredible physical tools. He’s got mid-4.5 speed, the ability to throw off-balance and at different angles, and he’s talented enough to be a great deep ball thrower in the NFL. If he was the Niners starting quarterback come Week 1, his ADP wouldn’t be anything near where it is now – it would be fringe QB1 territory. No one questions Lance’s ability to put up numbers, so really, the only thing holding his ADP back now is the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting QB. When/if Lance takes the job, he’s got the upside to put up mid-tier QB1 numbers, just like Justin Herbert did when he began starting last season. In a Kyle Shanahan offense that has George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, and Trey Sermon, the sky is truly the limit for Trey Lance.
3. Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 186, QB24)
Carr is probably the least exciting quarterback on this list, but that’s because he offers a different service than these guys. Rather than being a bench stash to see how things unfold to start the year, Carr easily offers the ability to be a QB1 if given a decent matchup. He finished as QB13 last year, and is one of the more polished quarterbacks in the NFL. Though the cast of weapons around him isn’t anything to write home about, it wasn’t last year either, and he should be able to build upon the chemistry he’s built with the talent around him. The Raiders offensive line will be much healthier this year, Darren Waller is in the midst of his prime, and a breakout season from Henry Ruggs could turn Carr into a low-end QB1 by season’s end. If you take a guy like the next QB on this list, consider Carr as a backup.
2. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 98, QB12)
Hurts has the ability to become 2021’s breakout star. As fantasy’s QB3 during the three full games he played as a rookie, Hurts showed that he already has one of the highest ceilings in the league, and can offer legitimate fantasy production with his legs on weeks that he’s not playing too well through the air. Sounds like a certain guy from Baltimore? Not to get ahead of myself, but there’s a lot to be excited about for Hurts in 2021. With 4.59 speed, elite agility, solid arm talent, and a intriguing group of young receiving talent around him, he could feasibly slot in as a top-5 QB at season’s end. With how easy it is to find streamers at quarterback who offer comparable value to QBs going higher than Hurts (Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady), Hurts’ upside is definitely worth the risk of him being a bust.
1. Justin Fields – Chicago Bears (ADP 152, QB17)
Fields is an absolutely electric talent, and essentially offers Trey Lance’s talent in a situation where he could take the starting quarterback job in Chicago early on in the season. He’s a physical specimen, as his 6’3″, 228 pound frame combined with 4.44 speed gives him the measureables of a stud running-back – definitely not a QB. He’s also a decently polished passer, with quality weapons around him in Chicago in Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Tarik Cohen, and Cole Kmet. We all know the potential here with Fields once he starts. It’s only a matter of when. Grab Fields – you won’t regret it.