Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off of another stellar season in which he won his second consecutive NFL MVP Award. He threw 37 touchdown passes to only four interceptions. Those numbers are downright filthy. But as all fantasy football managers are aware of, just because a player has individual success on the field, that does not necessarily mean fantasy gold.
Despite the incredible season, Rodgers finished sixth in fantasy points at the quarterback position. Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford all finished ahead of him. Obviously the biggest question facing fantasy managers looking at drafting Rodgers is how will he perform without Davante Adams. The Packers traded the All-Pro receiver to the Las Vegas Raiders in a blockbuster deal.
That left Rodgers without an elite receiver for arguably the first time in his career. But he still is Aaron Rodgers. He is one of the greatest quarterbacks anyone has ever seen. So, the question remains what is his fantasy projection heading into the 2022 NFL season?
Well, that's what we are here for. I am going to break down exactly what his projections are and where you should be looking to draft him in fantasy football leagues this year.
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2022 Fantasy Football: Aaron Rodgers projections
One thing every fantasy football manager must do before they ever draft their team is look at their settings. There is a rather large difference on when you should be drafting a quarterback based on scoring settings. The standard league allows four points per touchdown pass. However, with so many leagues converting to PPR, they have allowed six points per touchdown pass to offset the imbalance of wide receivers.
So, go check your settings and see if you will be rewarded four or six per touchdown pass. That's a massive difference. Rogers threw 37 touchdown passes last year. That's a difference of 74 points over the course of the season, or just over four points per game.
Now, let's take a look at Rodgers himself.
Despite his advanced age, he obviously is drinking from the Tom Brady water fountain. He has never looked better than he has the last two seasons, until the playoffs come of course. But that has no pertinence here.
The Packers went out and signed veteran wideout Sammy Watkins to replace Adams. They also drafted Christian Watson with their 34th overall pick in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Green Bay actually traded up to get him, so they must really like his potential. It couldn't have been his production they loved, as he only caught 43 passes for 800 yards his senior season, the best of his college career. Sadly, he's also banged up and the Packers are taking their time with his recovery.
Packers not rushing rookie WR Christian Watson back from knee injuryhttps://t.co/P56uXtLfbN pic.twitter.com/GqfEYD6YBg
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) August 3, 2022
Everyone has talked for years now the connection between Rodgers and Adams was unbelievable. Rodgers himself acknowledged that it was nice having a second quarterback out there running routes. Well, that's gone.
Watkins, after a stellar rookie season, has failed to live up to expectations. Much of that is due to his horrid injury history. Allen Lazard is a good receiver, but I don't think anyone believes he can become elite in the NFL. Green Bay also inexplicably brought back Randall Cobb yet again. Rodgers was the one who lobbied for them to bring back Cobb last season. It almost feels like a LeBron James-Russell Westbook situation in that the star made it happen, and it blew up in his face. Cobb tied a career low 375 yards on just 28 catches in 12 games last season. It's fair to say you should not expect much from him this year.
There is also the fact that Green Bay has two very, very talented running backs. AJ Dillon emerged last season as a dual threat to go with Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones. It would make a lot of sense for Green Bay to lean on their running game more this season. I believe that will be particularly true in the red zone.
Over the past 2 seasons, Davante Adams had 12 TD catches from the 5-yard line and in, easily the best in the NFL.
The Packers traded the best goal-to-go WR in the league and now need a new finisher.
A.J. Dillon can be a big part of that solution. pic.twitter.com/efMegGycvr
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 8, 2022
In previous seasons, Adams led the NFL in touchdown catches inside the 5-yard line. If you watched a Packers game and they were down there, you almost knew an Adams touchdown was coming. I fully expect Dillon to take many of those opportunities away now.
Aaron Rodgers is an elite quarterback and will be once again. But if he finished as QB6 while winning NFL MVP, then lost arguably his two best touchdown threats (one might be the best receiver in the world), it's hard to argue he will even finish inside the top 10.
Fantasy managers are much better off waiting on a player like Derek Carr three rounds later. Do not take Aaron Rodgers inside the first eight rounds of your draft, regardless of settings. In leagues that give only four points per touchdown passes, he is a complete fade and I would not draft him as a starter.
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