Moving Kawhi Leonard to the North is one of the boldest and arguably the biggest trade splash that has happened recently. Being mired in playoff limbo for quite some time now, this move is expected to catapult them into the Finals by acquiring one of the best two-way players in the league.
Moving former Raptor All-star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan to the Spurs will definitely hurt the team and the fans, but for what it is worth, the Toronto franchise made a huge upgrade on their roster and is clearly the winner on this trade.
Despite the gamble on Leonard’s health and his upcoming contract situation, they are poised to rule the East if everything clicks this season.
The current expectations for the Raptors are quite clear, go all the way and win. If prolonged success is the plan and they want to be included in the context of basketball dynasties, they have to make some moves that go beyond this season that would affect their future success.
After the trade, here is the best possible scenario for the Raptors in the summer of 2019.
Kawhi Leonard is still the big question mark whether he will resign with the Raptors or not. Although his desire is to play for a Los Angeles team, reports say that Leonard will have a hard time declining what the Raptors have on the table. They are pursuing him hard and have all the intention to go all in. Clearly, long-term success will be inevitable with Leonard on board.
Let’s assume that Leonard resigned to be part of the Raptors long-term, his presence and talent in the North may not just cut it anymore with the brewing elite teams in the East like the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers.
The free agent pool of 2019 that features high profile names like Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler might give them a much-needed piece to turn the tides in their favor. The only problem would be the current cap situation of the franchise.
No team in their right mind would want to miss out on the free agency of next summer, but with the encumbering contracts of Jonas Valanciunas ($17.6 million, player option 2019-20), Serge Ibaka ($23.2 million, final year 2019-20), and Kyle Lowry ($33.2 million, final year 2019-20) it would be quite the balancing act to make some moves.
At a glance, disposing of the cumbersome contracts would be the best thing to do. In reality, securing current pieces that they have for the future instead of joining the free agency frenzy next summer would benefit them more.
Their starting center Jonas Valanciunas is one of the more physically imposing big men left in the league. His size and skill get him boards and buckets with ease. He isn’t too popular not being in the mold of the usual stretch big man. Moving forward he might change all that.
He has improved his offensive arsenal by extending his range beyond the three-point line. Hitting 30 out of 74 shots last season, giving him an impressive 40 percent clip, we might see him putting up more of those in volume. Compared to his 2016-17 season of only two three-point attempts, it looks like he is slowly getting that green light to hit those shots from the arc.
At 26-years-old, the Lithuanian big man is about to enter his peak and assumably get better. It is beneficial for the Raptors to lock him long term for their future.
On the other hand, their starting power forward Serge Ibaka is on another boat. Evolving from shot blocking savant to bonafide stretch big, he has diversified the way he played through the years. It doesn’t mean that his contributions aren’t valued or irrelevant, but for his hefty price tag, they can get a low-cost substitute that would give them a near replica of his contributions.
With Og Anunoby and Pascal Siakam ready and capable to get a shot at the starting gig, it makes it easier for the Raptors to flip Ibaka for some assets.
The Bucks may be a willing partner with their need for defense, length, and spacing. John Henson, Tony Snell, and a second rounder may do it. If they can convince Khris Middleton for a long-term commitment, he would be the better trade target.
Nonetheless, flipping Ibaka would be an easy decision for the franchise to make.
Lastly, four-time All-star Kyle Lowry may be the hardest one to gauge. Despite an All-star season, he had a significant dip in production compared to his 2016-17 campaign. With last season’s performance, that doesn’t point to him being dispensable to the team.
Paired with one of the best two-way players in the league, Lowry will have fewer opportunities to create shots for himself, which is actually a good thing. Unknowing to most, the Raptors star point guard is an excellent catch-and-shoot player better than the likes of Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to name a few.
Spacing the floor for the shooters as he creates his own offense, Kawhi Leonard will make life easier for a player like Lowry. His luxurious price tag is a tough pill to swallow, but for an experimental season, it might be worth it.
In a nutshell, the best situation for the Raptors would be securing Leonard and Valanciunas for the future, letting Lowry ride off the last year of his contract to see the fit before committing long-term and flipping Ibaka for some assets or for something more cost effective.
If they have around $20 million in cap space, going after Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, or Tyreke Evans would be a good idea in the summer of 2019. The only high profile name they should concern themselves with in the summer of 2019 is only their own, Kawhi Leonard.
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