Alvin Kamara has a big year ahead of him. He is easily one of the best running backs in the NFL. Not only is he effective between the tackles, but Sean Payton schemes passing plays his way as well. For this reason, Kamara is one of the most prolific fantasy football options in the running back position. He should be in for another big year, as he is a focal point of the New Orleans Saints offense.
With the recent news of Michael Thomas being ruled out in the first portion of the season, Kamara is likely to dominate the fantasy world to kick off the 2021 NFL season. Thomas could come back after Week 7, but it could be until October until he returns. If that's the case, Kamara is by far the best player on the Saints offense and will be utilized often.
We'll see how it plays out for the Saints, as the team could struggle this year. Not only is Michael Thomas out for multiple weeks, but the coaching staff hasn't named a starting quarterback yet. Jameis Winston is more of a natural quarterback whereas Taysom Hill is a dual-threat. Some were avoiding Kamara due to the uncertainty at quarterback. However, with Thomas ruled out, it no longer matters who is under center.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
Alvin Kamara was an absolute stud last year with the Saints, as he ended the season with 932 rushing yards, 83 receptions, 756 receiving yards, and 21 total touchdowns. According to ESPN, that resulted in 377.8 fantasy points on the year, averaging 25.2 points per game. With those numbers, Kamara wound up being the RB1 on the 2020 season, making him an elite fantasy option week in and week out.
Kamara won many people the championship in their fantasy leagues last season after totaling six rushing touchdowns for the Saits in Week 16 against the Minnesota Vikings. He scored 56.2 fantasy points in PPR formats in the championship week. Anyone who had Kamara on their squad last year was ecstatic with his production, as he scored 40 more fantasy points than Dalvin Cook who finished as the RB2.
Consistency is key and Kamara provided exactly that in 2020 for the Saints and fantasy football owners.
It is important to note though, that Kamara has never recorded 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. Most running backs who perform as elite fantasy producers typically are at the top of the list in terms of rushing yards. We'll see if Kamara can finally break that streak, but even if he doesn't, his involvement in the Saints' passing game still makes him a top fantasy assett.
2021 Fantasy Projections
According to ESPN's projections, Alvin Kamara is due for another big season with the Saints. He's projected to record 862 rushing yards, 75 receptions, 677 receiving yards, and 11 total touchdowns. Based on those numbers, Kamara is projected to score 293.79 fantasy points in PPR formats. In comparison to last season, ESPN is projecting a considerable drop of production for Alvin Kamara. Even so, he's still projected to finish as a top five option.
Kamara typically finds the end zone often, as he's only had single digit touchdowns once in his career. Additionally, Kamara has recorded 81+ receptions every season as well. There is reason to believe that Kamara out produces ESPN's projections, as he'll be the focal point of the Saints' offense this year.
Many are worried about the possibility of Taysom Hill playing quarterback and taking away Kamara's scoring opportunities in the red-zone. This is a real concern, but considering the Saints don't have many other options to start the year, Hill's presence under center should not effect Kamara's fantasy production by much. Sean Payton is a brilliant coach that knows how to get the ball in the hands of his best players. With that said, Kamara has a solid chance to repeat his performance from 2020.
Rank at Position
Based on ESPN's projections, Kamara will finish as the RB4. Simultaneously, he's routinely being taken within the top five of fantasy drafts. Christian McCaffrey seems to be the consensus number one pick, with Dalvin Cook right behind him. Many are taking Derrick Henry third overall, making Kamara available at the four spot. Although that's true, Kamara should have a slight jump in ADP rankings after Michael Thomas's injury with the Saints.
Kamara should be a top three selection this year without a doubt and a case could be made for him to go top two. The Saints offense might struggle next season, but Kamara will thrive. It's possible the Saints choose Hill as the starting quarterback, and of course Latavius Murray will get his fair share of carries as well. Even so, Kamara is the main man in New Orleans and he should provide the same high scoring consistency we saw in 2020.
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