The New Orleans Saints suffered yet another devastating end to their season this past year, losing to the Minnesota Vikings in overtime in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. However, that's not what we're about to take about now. Rather, it's an Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football conversation.
No, it wasn't quite as bad as their Divisional Round loss to the Vikings in January 2018 or their NFC Championship Game defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams the following year, but it still pretty deflating.
But the Saints have once again been pegged as one of the favorites to come out of the NFC in 2020, and a big reason for that is running back Alvin Kamara.
Since entering the NFL in 2017, Kamara has been one of the league's best all-purpose backs.
Let's break down his Fantasy Football outlook for the coming season.
2019 Fantasy Football Recap
Kamara was actually very disappointing in 2019.
After finishing fourth among running backs in fantasy points in both 2017 and 2018, Kamara plummeted all the way to 16th this past season, amassing 167.5 total points and averaging just 12 points per week.
So what exactly happened to Kamara?
Well, first of all, his efficiency dipped, particularly in the receiving game.
While the University of Tennessee product hauled in 81 receptions for the third straight year (weird how he keeps hitting that random number), his yards took a nosedive, as he tallied just 533 yards off those catches (6.6 yards per grab). That came after Kamara logged 10.2 yards per reception in 2017 and then 8.8 yards per catch in 2018.
Much of that is due to Kamara being used as a guy who just caught screen passes in the backfield in 2019 rather than someone who actually ran routes like a wide receiver the previous two years. Why the Saints suddenly veered away from using Kamara in his previous role is unknown to me, but it certainly played a role in his diminished production.
Kamara's decreased efficiency also played a part in reducing his total touchdowns. He amassed a grand total of six touchdowns this past season, a significant drop from the 18 scores he punched in the year prior.
It should also be noted that Kamara was playing through various injuries throughout 2019, which could also explain his sudden falloff. He missed two games and was nursing knee, ankle and back maladies.
2020 Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Projections
Assuming Kamara is healthy entering 2020, he seems primed for a bounceback year.
He is just 25 years old and has accumulated a manageable 728 touches through three NFL seasons, so it's not like he is aging halfback who is being run into the ground.
Kamara has never been a truly elite rusher. He has yet to even post 900 rushing yards in a single campaign, but what makes him so lethal is his versatility.
You would think New Orleans would revisit using Kamara in different packages in 2020, sending him out on actual routes rather than using him as a safety blanket out of the backfield.
Perhaps having Drew Brees healthy for the whole season (let's remember that Brees missed five games due to a thumb injury in 2019) with help Kamara return to a degree of normalcy.
Look for Kamara to return to being a major dual threat for the Saints, finishing with around 800 rushing yards while catching in the neighborhood of 80 passes. But this time, he'll do it more efficiently and will go back to scoring touchdowns regularly.
Will he tally 18 scores again? Maybe not, especially considering that Brees also has Emmanuel Sanders at his disposal along with Michael Thomas and tight end Jared Cook, but it would be surprising to me if Kamara didn't improve from 2019.
Rank at Position
Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott are probably the top three dual-threat running backs entering the 2020 NFL campaign.
That's no disrespect to Kamara, but he is a step below their level.
So, he probably won't be finishing in the top three, and guys like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones will provide stiff competition in terms of rounding out the top five.
But I do anticipate that Kamara will be back in that range instead of 16th.
Again, this hinges on Kamara being healthy and the Saints actually utilizing him like they did in his first couple of seasons. But if all of those boxes get checked, the Norcross, Ga. native should return to prominence.
There will definitely be some sleepers in the mix this year. Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders, etc. However, Kamara has already proven that he can be an elite fantasy back and should be able to beat those guys out provided that he gets enough touches.
Because some fantasy owners may have forgotten about Kamara, he could be the type of guy you could potentially steal in your draft. Expect Kamara to rebound in 2020.
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