The Melodrama is over. After the news that Carmelo is willing to make a switch to Oklahoma that came from the left field, the Thunder front office immediately jumped the gun and secured another star to put alongside the reigning MVP and PG-13. The trade will leave a bittersweet taste for Thunder fans, since Enes Kanter's presence in the community, the media and on the bench was practically immeasurable. Objectively, however, this was an intelligent move the Thunder front office could have made once the opportunity presented itself. After all, it's all just business, and Sam Presti has proven once again that he's one hell of a businessman, effectively turning Serge Ibaka, Cameron Payne, Joffrey Lauvergne, Anthony Morrow, Kendrick Perkins and a 1st round pick into Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.
Once the initial period of shell shock passed, a legitimate question popped into most NBA fans' minds: how many (basket)balls will this team require to remain consistently effective? The career paths of all three pieces of the freshly assembled center cast in Oklahoma basically revolved around controlling the ball and playing the role of the go-to guy in the majority of matchups. A simple look at their tendencies from last season suddenly becomes a major cause of concern in this new context: among players who played 30+ minutes per game, Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George ranked 1st, 14th and 16th in usage rate respectively, and their combined usage amounted almost to a 100 percent.
In a vacuum, that isn't as worrying since it's expected that the best player on the roster will be the one finishing the bulk of offensive plays. However, it's the mode of attack his new players relied upon that will force Billy Donovan to put in a lot of work; all three of them were in the top 15 in frequency of isolation plays last season. That is definitely unsustainable in the long run, so a complete shift in mindset will likely become the focal point of the preparation for the forthcoming season, starting with training camp next week.
After wasting the best years of his prime on some subpar teams that were put together in MSG, Carmelo will finally have a capable floor general to work with, which should ease his transition to a more efficient player who's being served scoring opportunities on a platter, and not being forced to create them. The spacing that Anthony's (and PG's) presence on the perimeter will create for Westbrook's relentless drives is very enticing, and should in theory be flawless. The opposing defences will basically have to pick their poison; stick to their man and let Westbrook do his magic one on one, or sag off and leave either Anthony or George with enough space to operate.
That means that a lot of Thunder success will depend on whether Carmelo will be fine with playing the “bait” and depending on the second part of Westbrook's drive-and-kick game. If he manages to play to his strengths without a guarantee of touching the ball every single possession, and also tones down on the iso post-up plays he recently fell in love with (he used it more than Anthony Davis last season), the Thunder will become a nightmare matchup on defense. After all, playing off the ball obviously suits him, as he had the seventh highest EFG% on spot up plays (among players with three or more spot up shots per game), but was assisted only on 42.5% of his made field goals, which would rank him only behind LeBron James among forwards with at least 1000 FGA in the season.
The addition of Carmelo Anthony will surely provide a major boost for the Thunder offense and help in taking a good share of load off of Westbrook's back, but it's still unknown how much of a liability he will be on the defensive end. During the last few seasons his DBPM and defensive win shares are on a decline, and that aspect of his game was often criticized. However, the eye-test suggests that the source of the problem is not his inability to play defense, but rather his willingness. He would frequently look apathetic on the defensive end, as if he were focused on retaining energy for his attacking duties.
Now that he is in a new environment, with his mind focused on battling it out in the postseason rather than taking an early rest, expect Melo to raise his defense up a notch. He has all the physical tools; his well-built frame enables him to bang down low with the stronger forwards, and he's also agile enough to be decently effective as a perimeter defender. Besides, it's not like Carmelo's defense will be the X-factor for the Thunder. With Roberson and George who can essentially guard all positions one through four and Steven Adams acting as a safety net at the rim, Melo will be able to afford a few defensive lapses. If all five guys buy into the idea of playing hard defense, the switching potential the lineup of Westbrook, Roberson, George, Anthony and Adams provides could prove to be deadly.
There will obviously be some obstacles that the Thunder will have to surpass following their addition of two stars in Anthony and George, and it's delusional to expect them to perfectly mesh right off the bat. First and foremost, the trio will have to find that sweet spot where they complement each other in a perfect way, both mentally and on the court. This is where the Thunder will need their fourth star to step up – Billy Donovan. He's now faced with a tight time-frame in which he has to adjust his whole philosophy, and other than the pure X's and O's, he will also have to be able to manage some pretty interesting egos. It may seem counterintuitive, but not a lot of experts would probably want to be in his skin right now; this is shaping up to be the defining season of his career, and he will be under the pressure of not allowing the work his front office put in go to waste. One thing is sure though, no one will tolerate the your turn, my turn offensive sets and excessive use of iso bail-out plays that haven't yielded much success, both in his two seasons and in the Scott Brooks era.
Other than elevating the Thunder to a whole new level, this trade has another important implication. After learning from their mistakes, the Thunder executives have finally decided to convince their superstar that they are willing to do all it takes to maximize his chance of winning a ring. This should be a huge nudge for Westbrook to finally sign his extension, and a guarantee that the nominally small Oklahoman market will have the opportunity to enjoy top tier basketball for years to come. Rest assured that their crowd will react properly, since the addition of Carmelo Anthony means that the question isn't whether they can finish as the top four seed anymore, it's whether they can beat the Warriors in a seven game series.
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