Before he was traded to the Houston Astros prior to the 2018 MLB season, Gerrit Cole had been coming off a pair of disappointing seasons.
Despite looking like the future ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates after posting a 2.60 ERA and finishing fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting in 2015, Cole saw an uptick in ERA in both 2016 (3.88) and 2017 (4.26), and he gave up 31 homers in his last season with the Pirates.
Since coming to Houston, however, Cole has been a different beast. He led all starters with a 12.4 K/9 while posting a 2.88 ERA in 2018, and this season he has a 13.1 K/9 to go with career bests in ERA+ (163) and WHIP (0.953).
Cole seems to have unlocked his potential, and ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan writes that — as the top free agent in this winter's class — he could sign a record-breaking contract:
The record deal for a starter is David Price's $217 million. The record per year for a pitcher is Zack Greinke's $34.4 million (or, for the pedants who factor in the price of deferred money in Greinke's deal, Justin Verlander's $33 million). Cole seeking Price's seven years at Greinke's average annual value is not out of the realm of possibility, not with the Astros, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves all positioned and motivated to explore adding Cole.
As Passan mentions, Cole has proven to be durable. He threw at least 200 innings in each of the last two seasons and is on pace to do so again this year.
Similarly, Cole's age (29) and wipeout stuff make him a likely candidate for a massive payday. Regardless of how much money Cole will attain, the Astros have their work cut out for them this winter if they hope to retain his services.
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