The Houston Astros are in southern California to take on the San Diego Padres Monday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Padres prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Astros-Padres Projected Starters
Spencer Arrighetti vs. Yu Darvish
Spencer Arrighetti (7-12) with a 4.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 131.2 innings pitched, 158K/61BB, .249 oBA
Last Start: vs. Oakland Athletics: No Decision, 6.2 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 14 starts, 5.22 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 69 innings pitched, 81K/37BB, .257 oBA
Yu Darvish (5-3) with a 3.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 64 innings pitched, 62K/17BB, .233 oBA
Last Start: at Seattle Mariners: Win, 5 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 4 starts, 2.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22 innings pitched, 21K/4BB, .203 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Padres Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-196)
Moneyline: +110
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: -130
Over: 7.5 (-124)
Under: 7.5 (+102)
How to Watch Astros vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40 PM PT
TV: Space City Home Network, Bally Sports San Diego
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Spencer Arrighetti is not having the best season if you look at his basic stats. However, he does a couple things really well. First off, Arrighetti is very much a strikeout pitcher. If the opposing team is not careful, Arrighetti will get to double digit strikeouts in the game. Arrighetti's high strikeout rate comes from his high whiff rate. He has some nasty pitches, and the Astros need him to be at his best in this game. If Arrighetti can rack up the strikeouts in this game, the Astros will win.
Arrighetti has been good in three of his last four starts. The one bad start was bad, but he was able to flush it pretty easily. In his three good starts, Arrighetti has combined for 20.1 innings pitched, 12 hits allowed, 24 strikeouts, and he has a 0.89 ERA. When Arrighetti is good, he is one of the hardest pitchers to hit. If he can have a good start, the Astros will win this game.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Yu Darvish is making his third start since returning from injury, and he is coming off a pretty good one. The Mariners are not the best offensive team, so it is not surprising he was able to pitch well against them. Houston is a bit better, but Darvish is a good pitcher. I would not expect him to go seven strong, but he should be able to keep the Astros in this game for at least five or six. Doing this will help the Padres win the game.
As mentioned, Arrighetti has been good in three of his last four. However, he can become hittable. His opponent batting average on the road is over .250, which will not bode well for him. The Padres are one of the better offensive teams in the MLB as a team. In fact, San Diego leads the MLB in batting average, and they get on base often. If the Padres can draw some walks, and keep hitting the ball well, they will be able to win this game.
Final Astros-Padres Prediction & Pick
This should end up being a good game. Both pitchers are solid, but I am leaning towards Arrighetti in this game. I am not sure how Yu Darvish will perform against this better offense in the Astros. I will take the Astros to win this game straight up Monday night.
Final Astros-Padres Prediction & Pick: Astros (+110)
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