The Baltimore Ravens will have an opportunity to exact revenge this weekend in their wild card matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
The two teams met in Week 11 of the regular season, throwing jabs for the better part of four quarters before Derrick Henry won the game with a 29-yard touchdown run in overtime.
At the time, the loss dropped the Ravens to 6-4, and a loss to the Steelers the following week–when Baltimore was best by a myriad of COVID-19 issues–put them at 6-5, and in serious danger of missing the playoffs.
But the Ravens rallied. Baltimore won five straight to earn a Wild Card berth. perhaps most importantly, the offense has exploded into life.
The Ravens had at least 400 yards of total offense in four of their last five games, and have absolutely decimated opponents by getting back to what they do best: establishing a bruising ground attack.
Now, Baltimore has some momentum as it enters Wild Card weekend. The Ravens are seeking retribution against the Titans not only for the Week 11 loss, but for last year's defeat in the AFC Divisional Round. Will they get vengeance?
Here are four bold predictions for the Ravens as they prepare to face the Titans on Sunday afternoon in Tennessee.
1. Ravens rush for over 200 yards
It is no secret the Ravens will look to run the ball.
Baltimore rushed for over 200 yards in four of its last five games, including an eye-popping 404 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17.
Rookie back J.K. Dobbins has been one of the Ravens' most productive runners despite splitting carries with Gus Edwards. Dobbins averaged 6.0 yards per carry for the year, and he tallied 160 yards against the Bengals. The former Ohio State star has also scored a touchdown in six consecutive games.
In fact, it was the Titans game where Dobbins finally established himself as a key figure in Baltimore's backfield. Sure, he had gone for over 100 yards against the Steelers just a couple weeks prior, but the Titans game marked the start of a string where he received at least 10 carries per contest.
Dobbins will be tremendously important on Sunday, as will Edwards. The 25-year-old has rebounded from a midseason slump, and strong performances in each of the last two weeks suggest Edwards will provide a nice sort of duality with Dobbins.
Then there's Lamar Jackson. The Titans mostly shackled the reigning NFL MVP last time out, holding Jackson to 51 yards rushing on 13 carries.
But the 24-year-old has played his best football at the end of the year, and averaged nearly 7.4 yards per carry in the final two weeks of the season.
Tennessee ranks 19th against the run, both in total yards allowed and yards per carry. The Titans are likely to sell out to stop the run.
However, the Ravens have found a certain rhythm running the ball. They also have more familiarity with Tennessee's defensive concepts, which should be vital over the course of the game.
Baltimore will hope to establish the run early so as to prey on a weak Titans secondary by way of play-action and run-pass option looks.
Speaking of which…
2. Lamar Jackson throws three touchdown passes
Jackson has not fared well against the Titans.
Tennessee swarmed Jackson during last year's Divisional Round, sacking him four times and also forcing him into a pair of interceptions. Jackson completed barely over 52 percent of his attempts, and was uncomfortable in the pocket all game.
Week 11 presented a similar scenario. Despite the Titans' noted defensive struggles and lack of a consistent pass rush, Jackson only managed to complete just over 58 percent of his passes, throwing another interception. He was harassed all game, and failed to connect on multiple deep shots down the field.
But it could be a different story this time around, particularly if the Ravens can beat Tennessee up in the run game and orchestrate long scoring drives to keep the Titans' offense off the field.
If the Titans sell out, the Ravens will have an opportunity to open up the secondary with speedsters like Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin. For his part, Brown has been a more reliable target around the red zone in recent weeks. Mark Andrews also thrives there, giving Jackson a pair of trusty options if the Ravens resort to play-action or RPO looks in Titans territory.
There is also the simple motivation factor. Jackson is not likely to go quietly after losing each of his last two outings against the Titans. It could make for a big day.
3. Ravens hold Derrick Henry under 100 yards
Let's go super bold here.
Derrick Henry became just the eighth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a single season in 2020. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 126 yards per game, in addition to 17 rushing touchdowns. Yet, the Ravens have the talent up front to keep Henry mostly in check.
Henry ran for 133 yards in the Week 11 win over Baltimore, though that does not tell the whole story. The Ravens had actually done an exceptional job against Henry in the first half, limiting him to under 40 yards. But he busted loose after halftime, racking up 96 yards on the ground and leading the Titans back from an early deficit.
It was the second time Baltimore's defense gassed out against Henry and the Titans in 2020, as he had previously averaged 6.6 yards per carry in the third quarter of last year's playoff matchup. Simply put, things have to be different this time around if the Ravens want to win.
Baltimore's defense gave up 4.6 yards per carry in 2020. They need to commit to stopping the run, much as the Titans figure to do on the other end.
Yes, the Titans have weapons in the passing game, and Ryan Tannehill is one of the more on-target quarterbacks in football. But there is absolutely no question Tennessee's offense runs through Henry, whose usage is unparalleled for any running back in today's game.
Don “Wink” Martindale will stack the box and trust his secondary in one-on-one coverage. The Ravens will keep Henry off the stat sheet as much as possible, which bodes well for the end result.
4. Ravens win 27-20
If the Ravens run the ball and contain Henry, there is almost no way they lose this game.
Tennessee's defense is fragile and far more susceptible to big plays. The Titans have also been throttled for over 400 yards of total offense in four of their last five games, including a 200-yard rushing performance by the Green Bay Packers in Week 16.
That bodes well for the Ravens who will pound the pigskin and hope to stuff Henry and control the trenches on the other side of the ball.
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