The most controversial and perhaps consequential offseason in Portland Trail Blazers history is firmly in the rearview mirror. Portland tips off training camp in less than two weeks, opens exhibition action on Oct. 4 and is just more than a month away from hosting the Sacramento Kings in the season opener — a game that won’t only serve as Chauncey Billups’ debut on the sidelines, but could mark the beginning of Damian Lillard’s swan song in Rip City.
But a summer dominated by frustration, consternation and rampant speculation about the Blazers is fading fast. The 2021-22 season is almost here, finally, affording Portland some much-needed short-term focus and stability that could still be gone once it's over come late spring.
The decisive factor in Lillard’s ultimate decision will be how his team fares on the floor this season. And before the playoffs, at least, there’s ample reason to believe the Blazers will defy expectations — and if you’re a bettor, maybe a golden opportunity to make some extra cash.
Oddsmakers list Portland’s over/under for wins this season at 43.5, according to BetOnline. These are the biggest reasons the Blazers seem bound to beat that line.
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Rip City is Dame's city … for now
Lillard’s teammates, to a man, maintained all summer that he’d be back in Portland for 2021-22 despite his pointed, public wavering about continuing his career with the Blazers. Once Lillard denied reports of an imminent trade demand in mid-July, all subsequent reporting indicated the best player in team history would revisit his uncertain future after giving Billups one full season to turn Portland into a contender.
No one should be surprised if Lillard is playing elsewhere a year from now. It was just three weeks ago he added even more fuel to the trade-machine fire, quipping on Instagram Live that he’s “not leaving PDX … right now, at least.”
The Blazers and their fans can finally exhale with confidence, though. Lillard made abundantly clear a week ago that he’s not going anywhere:
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Portland went 13-11 last season when Lillard played without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, a 44-win pace. He might have reached a plane of dominance offensively that virtually assures his squad of a winning record in the regular season, a la LeBron James and James Harden.
Surrounded by superior defenders and with even just marginally better injury fortune across the roster, Lillard might be good enough to push Portland past 43 victories essentially by himself.
44 victories is routine for Blazers with Jusuf Nurkic
Portland has won at a 44-win pace in four of the last six seasons, including 2020-21 despite its second- and third-best players missing significant chunks of the schedule simultaneously. The Blazers fell short of that rate in 2019-20 and 2016-17, a pair of seasons not coincidentally marked most by the absence of Nurkic.
Portland went 14-6 after acquiring Nurkic for pennies on the dollar at the 2017 trade deadline, invigorated by his high-post playmaking and defensive influence in the paint. If he hadn't endured a small fracture in his right leg in late March, the Blazers surely would have finished better than .500.
Nurkic missed every game in 2019-20 before the league restart in Orlando while recovering from that horrific compound fracture to his left leg suffered the previous season. Hassan Whiteside fared poorly as his replacement, racking up typically solid box-score numbers but failing to match Nurkic's more subtle two-way impact on a nightly basis.
Nurkic, off the floor for more than a year, obviously wasn't anywhere near his peak in the bubble. But even much less than his best proved a major upgrade on Whiteside. Portland finished the restart 6-2 to earn a spot in the play-in game, where Lillard willed his team to victory.
Nurkic is a flashing red injury risk at this point in his career. It's foolish to suggest otherwise. When healthy, though, he has always been the Blazers' second bellwether behind Lillard, a reality further cemented by Nurkic's impressive on-off numbers a year ago. If Nurkic again succumbs to injury this season? Cody Zeller is easily Portland's best backup center during the Nurkic era, and the addition of Larry Nance Jr. gives Billups enough horses to downsize for extended stretches when he sees fit.
The West isn't as strong as it seems on paper
In a perfect NBA world devoid of existing injuries, the Western Conference would boast as many as six teams with legitimate championship aspirations. The Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns still own those hopes to varying degrees, but the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors enter 2021-22 with a lesser chance to win in June than their talent alone suggests.
Kawhi Leonard could miss the entire regular season and maybe even the playoffs after tearing his ACL in mid-May, only going under the knife two months later. Jamal Murray is at least poised to return from his own ACL tear at some point this season, but probably not before the All-Star break. Klay Thompson will be back, too, well over two years removed since last taking the floor while reacclimating from a pair of significant injuries on the wrong side of 30.
The top of the West just isn't as strong as it appears on paper or has been in the recent past. Even the star-studded Lakers, one of the oldest teams in league history, could be subject to major injury-related volatility. Utah and Phoenix seem like the only upper-rung Western Conference teams set to play like top-two seeds over the full 82-game grind.
That sense of unknown extends below the West's elite, too. Would anyone be surprised if the Dallas Mavericks took a step back with Jason Kidd pulling the reins? The New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves are something close to complete question marks. Even the ascendant, rock-solid Memphis Grizzlies will face an adjustment period after swapping Jonas Valanciunas for Steven Adams this summer. Who knows what to make of the San Antonio Spurs?
Portland prides itself on continuity under Neil Olshey, a strength that doubles as a weakness with Lillard's long-term future in doubt. But for this season only, that roster stability will go a long way toward smoothing over any rough edges of Billups' debut campaign on the sidelines, especially with so many other Western Conference playoff competitors in various states of flux.
This is Portland's best roster since 2015
Ignore the ugly handling of Billups' hiring and the layered drama surrounding Lillard for now. Setting those disappointing, uncomfortable dynamics aside, it'd be easy to convince yourself the Blazers enter 2021-22 with more realistic hopes of winning the West than any season since LaMarcus Aldridge last played in Rip City six years ago.
Portland's starters posted a dominant +14.2 net rating last season, per Cleaning the Glass. Replacing Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter with Nance and Zeller is a massive defensive upgrade, while Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little represent some measure of untapped upside. Tony Snell and Ben McLemore are perfectly worthy end-of-rotation players, too.
Bottom line: This is the Blazers' best roster since 2015. Health provided, anything less than 44 wins would be an abject failure for Portland, the type of season that pushes Lillard out the door for good. Maybe it comes to pass.
A far more likely scenario? The Blazers vault well past their regular-season over/under, winning confident bettors easy money before doing little in the playoffs to change Lillard's mind about the direction of the franchise.
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