The bottom has finally fallen out for the Portland Trail Blazers. Stuck toward the back of the race for the play-in tournament over the last several weeks despite their most brazen tanking efforts, the Blazers now trail the 11th-place San Antonio Spurs by four games in the standings following Monday's overtime loss to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder.
Don't be concerned by Portland's feather-soft remaining schedule, either. Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic have been shelved for good, and don't be surprised if Josh Hart—out for at least the next three games with left patellar tendinopathy—joins them on the sidelines until next season. There's no telling how long the Blazers will hold Justise Winslow out due to left calf inflammation, either.
Kudos to interim general manager Joe Cronin and the rebuilt front office. With just under two weeks left in the regular season, the tanking Blazers have already assured they'll retain this year's first-round draft pick, bound to fall in the lottery. Portland doesn't have any control over its chances to land a second lottery selection, though.
The New Orleans Pelicans' first-round pick will only be conveyed to the Blazers if it falls between Nos. 5-14 on lottery night, and Willie Green's ninth-place team seems more likely than ever to make the play-in tournament. Even as the woebegone Los Angeles Lakers fade further from postseason relevance, their crosstown rivals have suddenly emerged alongside the Minnesota Timberwolves as the most serious threat to New Orleans' dreams of making the playoffs.
Why? The imminent return of Paul George, listed as questionable for Tuesday's tilt with the Utah Jazz after last playing on December 22nd with a torn UCL in his right elbow.
Paul George has missed the last 43 games with a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow 🚨 pic.twitter.com/8v2JWkSsGT
— Clippers Nation (@ClipperNationCP) March 29, 2022
Whether George ultimately plays against Utah or comes back later this week is largely inconsequential. The Clippers are four games up on the Pelicans for eighth in the Western Conference standings, and both teams have seven games left in the regular season. LA is entrenched at eighth place, poised for a road matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first leg of the play-in tournament.
It's the Clippers' chances of advancing to the playoffs that are most influenced by George's status.
They were 17-15 when George went down, with an above-average net rating of +0.7, per NBA.com/stats. LA has gone 19-24 since then, beset by numerous other injuries en route to a -3.5 net rating, 22nd in the league over that timeframe.
It'll take time for George to ramp back up to his typical All-NBA level of play after more than three months on the sideline. Even if he fails to reach those exalted heights for the play-in tournament, though, just the presence of another capable ball-handler and switchy, disruptive defender will pay significant dividends for the Clippers—especially in a prospective play-in tilt with C.J. McCollum, Brandon Ingram and the Pelicans that would decide who moves on to the playoffs.
The gravity of Portland getting that extra lottery pick from New Orleans was self-evident even before reports emerged about Cronin and company's sustained interest in trading for Jerami Grant. With Simons and Nurkic all but guaranteed new contracts come July, there isn't a bigger swing factor for the Blazers' offseason than the Pelicans' play-in fate.
Trading for Jerami Grant would placate Damian Lillard, but is it best for Portland's long-term future? @ArmstrongWinter dives into the Blazers' team-building dilemma #RipCityhttps://t.co/oygiqyp8Cr
— Blazers Nation (@BlazersNationCP) March 28, 2022
Get that additional lottery pick, and Portland could be able to have its cake and eat it too, bringing in a high-level draft prospect while fortifying next season's roster by adding a true impact player like Grant. Otherwise, the Blazers would likely be forced to choose between prioritizing the present and the future, either giving up the rare opportunity for team control on a top-10 pick or wasting another year of Lillard's waning prime with an underwhelming supporting cast.
Root for George and the Clippers come play-in time, Rip City. Their success at the expense of New Orleans will loom extremely large to prospects of the Blazers' on-the-fly rebuild.
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