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In the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoffs, the Boise State Broncos' dominant season earned them the Group of Five bid and a first-round bye. Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty drew all of the team's attention in 2024 but the Mountain West champions went 12-1 on the year with their only loss to undefeated No. 1-ranked Oregon.
Like they have done for most of their time with the conference, Boise State dominated Mountain West play all year, picking up nine of their 12 wins by double digits. However, with that taken into consideration, the Broncos' resume had been their biggest thorn throughout the season. They did not pick up a ranked win until the conference championship game when they handled No. 20-ranked UNLV 21-7.
Regardless, Boise State finished with the second-best record in Division I, trailing only Oregon. Jeanty, while being the team's engine, was not the only reason they ended the year as one of the four best teams in the nation. The Broncos' defense shined all year long while quarterback Maddux Madsen thrived when called upon.
Despite being one of the most dominant teams of the season, few are picking Boise State to bring home the national championship in January 2025. Following their first-round bye, they will face either SMU or Penn State on New Year's Eve in the Fiesta Bowl with a chance to secure the best season in school history. However, even with arguably the best offensive player in the country on their roster, the Broncos still have several key question marks entering the College Football Playoffs.
Boise State's defense is their fatal flaw
There is no doubt that Boise State's defense has looked dominant all season long. They have allowed just 22.6 points per game on the year, a top-40 mark in the country. That is especially impressive considering their slow start when they allowed 79 total points during the first two weeks to Georgia Southern and Oregon.
Allowing 34 points to the best team in the country is no shame, but giving up 45 points to Georgia Southern was not the best look. Since the Oregon loss, Boise State's competition has not been the best, facing just three above-average offenses after Week 2. To their credit, one of those teams was UNLV, who they held to just seven points in the Mountain West Championship Game.
While their performance against the Rebels was impressive, it was their second meeting of the season, giving Spencer Danielson and Erik Chinander an opportunity to make adjustments. The result appeared to be mostly the product of quality coaching, as they ceded 24 points to UNLV in the first meeting.
Title game aside, only Hawaii failed to reach double figures against Boise State in the regular season. Even with six of their opponents finishing the year below .500, many opposing offenses found success against the Broncos throughout the year. Their explosive offense, led by Jeanty, has mostly led to their blowout victories.
Whether it be SMU or Penn State, Boise State will face the best offense they have seen since Oregon in the College Football Playoffs. Either team is bound to have success against the Broncos' defense that allowed multiple touchdowns in five of their last six regular season games. Those are not the type of results one would hope to see from a championship-level team facing inferior opposition.
Maddux Madsen will be tested in the College Football Playoffs
With Jeanty's season-long dominance, Madsen has not been asked to do much in the pocket. Throwing for 2,714 passing yards on the year, the junior quarterback was very efficient when called upon, adding 22 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
It is a luxury as a quarterback to have a running back as reliable as Jeanty, whose 7.3 yards per carry made him virtually unstoppable. Madsen's efficiency still made him one of the best passers in the Mountain West but in the College Football Playoffs, his arm talent will certainly be put to the test more than it ever has before.
That is not to say that Boise State will not be able to find success with Jeanty on the ground. Against Oregon, the generational talent still took his 25 carries for 192 yards and three touchdowns. His volume will still be there, but with Boise State's defense certainly to be tested, Madsen will need to lead the offense through the air.
While Jeanty still dominated Oregon, the Ducks were the only team able to match Boise State's offense. That put the ball in Madsen's hand more than it was in any other game all year. In that game, Madsen connected on just 17 of his 40 pass attempts for 148 passing yards. He managed to toss a score and did not turn the ball over but averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt. In a three-point loss, there were several different swing points, but Madsen's uncharacteristic inefficiency stuck out on paper.
Boise State figures to be out of its element against a team that can match their offense and force Madsen to throw. The sample size is small, but with so many questions surrounding a largely untested team, the limited footage of the offense against another elite program is not encouraging.
