The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Washington Nationals for the second game of a three game set Tuesday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Brewers-Nationals prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
The Nationals took game one of this series 5-3. Washington scored three runs in the bottom of the seventh to secure the lead for good. Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses combined to have five of the seven total hits for the Nationals. Meneses was the better of the two as he finished with two hits, a home run, and three RBI. Thomas had the other two RBI, though. On the mound, Jake Irvin was solid. He pitched into the sixth inning and allowed just two runs on six hits. Kyle Finnegan threw a scoreless ninth inning to earn the save.
Milwaukee actually had more hits than Washington, they just could not push many runs across. Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Willy Adames all had multi-hit efforts for the Brewers. Joey Weimer had just one hit, but it was a home run. Corbin Burnes had a quality start as he pitched six innings, allowed just two runs on four hits, and struck out five. Reliever Elvis Peguero suffered the loss after allowing the three runs in the seventh inning.
Freddy Peralta will be the starting pitcher for the Brewers. The Nationals will turn the ball over to Josiah Gray.
Here are the Brewers-Nationals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Nationals Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+105)
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-126)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Brewers vs. Nationals
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, MASN
Stream: MLB TV subscription
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Peralta's numbers do not do him justice. His ERA is 4.46, which is a little high. However, that is mainly due to his walk rate being up this season. His number in other categories are very good. Peralta K/9 is at 10.8, his oBA is at .226, and he is in the 90th percentile in whiff percentage. Peralta is very good if he just keeps the walks down. The Nationals have drawn the third fewest walks, and they have the sixth highest chase rate in the MLB. Peralta has a very good matchup here, and if he can get a few chases out of the zone, I fully expect him to rack up the strikeouts and lead the Brewers to a win.
The Brewers should be able to get on base in this game. Gray has a 1.41 WHIP as he has given up 113 hits, and walked 54. Milwaukee was able to out-hit the Nationals in game one, but only three runs were pushed across. The Brewers should see a lot of traffic on the base paths in this game, as well. It is just a matter of whether or not they will find ways to score runners. If they can have a few clutch hits with runners in scoring position, the Brewers will cover the spread.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
The Nationals will have their ace on the mound in this game. He is coming off two very good starts. In his last two starts, Gray has been able to shut down both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets. He has thrown 13 innings in those starts, allowed just one run on six hits, and struck out eight. He is not much of a strikeout pitcher. Instead, he relies on soft contact and keeping hitters off the barrel. He has been able to do that the past two starts, so he just needs to keep it up. If he can do that, the Nationals will cover the spread.
Taking a look at some advanced analytics, the Brewers are bottom-5 in the MLB in zone swing percentage, and zone contact percentage. This means they just do not hit well. Gray should not be afraid to attack in the zone in this game, because the Brewers are one of the worst teams when it comes to hitting strikes. The Brewers have the eighth worst hard hit percentage, sixth worst averge exit velocity, fourth worst batting average, and third worst slugging percentage in all of baseball. Needless to say, Milwaukee struggles at the plate. Gray needs to just attack the zone in this game to have success.
Final Brewers-Nationals Prediction & Pick
Both pitchers struggle a little bit with their command, so walks could be high in this game. At the same time, they are both good pitchers. However, I expect the Nationals to come out and win this game at home. Gray is coming off two very good starts and seems to have picked up some steam heading into the final months of the season. I think he has a great game and leads the Nationals to a win.
Final Brewers-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-126), Under 8.5 (-105)