The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots Monday night in a pivotal AFC East matchup.

It has been a roller coaster of a season for Buffalo this season. They started hot, and were considered arguably the best team in the NFL early on. Then they inexplicably lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, 9-6. That had many people scratching their heads.

Buffalo bounced back and hammered the New York Jets, 45-17. That left many thinking the loss to Jacksonville was a random poor performance.

The following week, they got destroyed by the Indianapolis Colts. Jonathan Taylor ran for 185 yards on their defense and scored five touchdowns.

The loss dropped the Bills out of first place in the AFC East. The division was believed to be an after-thought entering the season. All of a sudden the Bills found themselves staring up at the New England Patriots.

The Bills looked good again, beating the Saints on Thanksgiving. That sets up this key matchup.

Here are my 4 bold predictions for the Bills against New England.

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Bills Week 13 Predictions vs Patriots

4. Buffalo's defense will stop New England's run game

The New England Patriots are very easy to figure out offensively. They want to run the ball, run it again, then when your linebackers have crept up to the line, throw play action. The problem for most teams is that they have been unable to line up and win the battle at the line of scrimmage vs the Patriots offensive line.

The Bills are 6th in the NFL allowing only 96.6 rushing yards per game. Those numbers are also slightly inflated because of what Jonathan Taylor did to them a couple weeks ago, and Derrick Henry did a few weeks prior to that.

I fully expect Sean McDermott and his defense to stack the box against New England and force Mac Jones to have to beat them.

3. Bills QB Josh Allen will turn the ball over twice

It's no secret that the Bills this season have gone as Josh Allen goes. In the team's seven wins, the Bills have averaged 37 points per game and Allen has 19 passing touchdowns. In their four losses, they are only averaging 17 points per game and Allen has struggled, throwing six touchdowns but has seven turnovers.

 

The Bills running game is non-existent. It's almost like they don't even want to try and run the football. There is a good chance that if you tell Patriots head coach Bill Belichick what you are going to do before the game, that he will make life difficult for your offense. It's like giving him answers to the test before taking it.

Devin Singletary leads the team in rushing with only 459 yards in 11 games. Quarterback Josh Allen is close behind him with 383. That's usually not a good sign for your running game.

3. Buffalo's defense will force Mac Jones into worst game of his career

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The Buffalo Bills were known for their offense last season and rightfully so. But this year, it has primarily been their defense that has carried them. They currently lead the NFL in total defense, allowing only 275 yards per game.

They are also one of the league's best at taking the ball away. The Bills are tied, ironically, with the Patriots for 2nd in the NFL with 25 takeaways behind only the Indianapolis Colts with 27.

Mac Jones is currently the front runner for offensive rookie of the year, but he is coming off one of his worst performances vs the Titans last week. Statistically, it looks like maybe his best game. But the tape told a different story.

1. Buffalo will retake the AFC East lead with a win

Despite having such an up and down season thus far, the Bills clearly have a more talented roster than New England. Last week, the Bills were dealt a tough blow to their defense. Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White tore his ACL during their Thanksgiving win at New Orleans.

But the Bills defense was not built around one player. They are deep, quick to the ball and very athletic.

In a game I expect to be close throughout, I believe it's the Bills defense that will make the play to win the game. Neither offense will do very much. You know Belichick is already game planning on taking Stefon Diggs away. McDermott will be keyed in on the Patriots running game.

In a very low scoring affair (yes, I would take the under in Vegas all day), the Bills should prevail. By no means does that make a statement though. These teams meet again in Week 16 in New England. Realistically, the division probably comes down to that game.