Coming off of a runner’s high that saw them take down the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills are in the driver’s seat as the hot team heading into the final three games of the 2020 NFL regular season. With Josh Allen seeming to be hitting his stride and his connection with Stefon Diggs growing stronger and stronger as the weeks progress, this team will be a hard out come playoff time, regardless of who they face.
But in their Week 15 matchup, the Bills travel to Denver to face the Broncos, who are coming off of a solid win over the Carolina Panthers.
Drew Lock set career marks against the horrendous Panthers secondary, but Lock’s luck should run out against a stingier defense from Buffalo. With how much Denver has been struggling over their past five games (2-3, only scored 16+ points twice), can Allen and the Bills do whatever they please on both sides of the ball on Sunday?
Take a look at these four bold predictions for this Week 15 contest.
4. Josh Allen will produce QB1 numbers – but with a low ceiling
Allen’s 2020 season has been nothing short of a realization of why the Bills drafted him out of Wyoming – finally having that established top option in Diggs, plus a solid supporting cast of Cole Beasley, John Brown, and even rookie Isaiah McKenzie has gone a long way to helping Allen ascend into the top echelon of NFL signal-callers this year.
Now, Allen still has not produced at 2020 levels for long enough to say that he has finally and permanently arrive, but he certainly has produced at top levels this season, which no real thought of these numbers being a flash in the pan. But against a stronger defense like that of the Broncos, Allen may be called upon to do more with less, potentially driving down his fantasy performance.
With the Broncos’ run defense regressing ever since the halfway mark of the season, the combination of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss could certainly see an uptick in usage this game, helping take some weight off of Allen’s workload and give him a slight rest to help him prep for the upcoming playoffs.
Allen certainly heads into the week predicted to produce top-five QB fantasy numbers this week, and for good reason, but do not be surprised a sub-250 passing yard performance, coupled with a two-TD ceiling for Allen on Sunday, which helps boost the fantasy landscape for Buffalo’s running attack.
3. Singletary & Moss combine for 175 and 2 TDs
As previously mentioned, the Broncos boast a stouter defense when it comes to stopping the pass, even with some of their impactful injuries happening to members of their secondary (four players currently on the Injury Reserve list are cornerbacks).
Add that to the fact that this game could potentially get out of hand at any point, and you have a solid recipe that involves the rushing attack for the Bills in a bit of a heavier role than usual, boasting rosier outlooks for both Singletary and Moss.
The problem that has followed this RB duo the entire season is who will be the hot hand during the game, as both have received their fair share of touches and attention during the course of the season.
In Week 13, a costly fumble by Moss deep inside their own territory led to his benching, paving the way for Singletary to secure 18 carries and 4 targets in the passing game against San Francisco. Last week, Moss regained his bell-cow role, chalking up 13 carries as opposed to Singletary’s 7, so game script and overall production seem to be the two biggest areas that affect who gets the most attention.
Singletary earns more attention in a negative game script, as he is the better back in passing situations. But Moss is the bigger back, suiting himself best for rushing instances, a likely possibility for Week 15. Regardless of who is trusted the most, the Bills could certainly get close to cracking the 200-yard mark on the ground when spread between Allen, Moss, and Singletary.
Also missing defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, the Bills could have a field day on the ground, which could also provide both backs with 10+ carries – Moss looks to be the safer of the two options this week, but no one actually knows until the game progresses.
2. Noah Fant finally returns to TE1 status
Darren Waller probably will put up the best line this week (9/150/1) and he set that high-water mark already on Week 15’s Thursday Night matchup, so Noah Fant will not have to try and put up the highest mark of the week, since it will be difficult to top.
However, and this is a big IF, if Fant is able to return to his early-season TE1 production levels against a favorable matchup, then some matchups that were hung out to dry with his zero-point performance last week could finally reap some postseason benefits for holding onto him.
Fant is a huge part of that Denver offense, and it is obvious that Lock trusts him – he loves to target the TE position, obvious in the eight targets, 73 yards, and a touchdown that other tight ends on the roster combined for in his food-poisoning early exit in Week 14.
What he has going for him is that the Bills are quite gracious towards opposing tight ends, as they allow 7.86 yards per target, putting them as the eight-most in the entire league. Combine that with the fact that if he hits six-plus targets and produces a 100-plus yard day, then he will become the seventh (of eight) TE’s to produce that line if earning six-plus targets.
Fant certainly is a big part of this offense, and his back-to-back full practice status Wednesday and Thursday of this week certainly point to the bout with food poisoning being a one-week occurrence, helping boost his stock back towards the top.
1. Broncos will struggle to produce 250+ total yards
Even if Lock and Fant establish their strong connection again, this Denver offense is potentially going to have some big gaps to fill on Sunday.
Both Melvin Gordon (shoulder) and Phillip Lindsay (hip) are listed as questionable for the game, meaning that both will be less than full strength against a top defense against the run.
Gordon profiles as the better option here, simply based on his production as of late and his snap counts, and with Lindsay’s production seeming to have dropped (potentially due to playing through his current injury), the Denver rushing attack will be hard-pressed to produce at a good-enough level to help take the pressure off of Lock in the passing game.
If the Bills remain strong against the run as they have for most of the season, then they can force Lock to beat them, which is not a recipe for success for Denver’s sake. Being able to bottle up the run means Lock will need to throw this team down the field, leading to him taking more chances and producing a higher probability of a few turnovers as well, something that could make the Buffalo D/ST unit a smash play for the second-consecutive week.
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