The upcoming season will provide Malcolm Brogdon with a great opportunity to showcase more elements of his skill-set than when he was with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Brogdon is already coming off a season with solid averages of 15.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 28.6 minutes. Being a member of the '50-40-90 club' with shooting percentages of 50.5 percent from the field, 42.6 percent from beyond the arc, and 92.8 percent on free throws was very impressive in itself. There is still room for him to expand his impact as a player, though.
The heavy investment that the Indiana Pacers are making into Brogdon should be reason enough to believe that he will have more responsibility. Keep in mind, the Pacers used a future first-round pick and a second-round pick to facilitate a sign-and-trade deal for him in addition to already handing out a four-year, $85 million contract.
The Pacers will need Brogdon to be more of an initiator and a playmaker as opposed to primarily being a spot-up shooter like he was in his previous role with the Bucks. An additional factor that will require more production from Brogdon is the fact that there isn't a definitive timetable for return from injury for All-Star guard Victor Oladipo and he will likely be on a minutes restriction after he returns.
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Experiencing such a shift in responsibility will open up opportunities for Brogdon to grow his assists average from the 3.2 assists per game figure that he has averaged over the last two seasons. That would likely come through general orchestration of the team's half-court offense and by driving the lane and delivering the ball to open teammates as an initiator.
While preseason action is obviously not an exact indicator of what will happen during the regular season, Brogdon has already shown positive signs as a facilitator. He recorded what would have been a career-high 14 assists during the Pacers' preseason opener against the Sacramento Kings and followed that up with five assists in 19 minutes during the following game.
Something to consider is that the Pacers' previous starting point guard, Darren Collison, averaged a combined 5.7 assists in 28.7 minutes during his final two regular seasons with the team. Brogdon is expected to have a larger role in terms of playmaking opportunities and playing time than what Collison had, too. Also, the height advantage that Brogdon has will allow him to make passes that Collison was unable to make.
The particular role that Brogdon will have in the Pacers' scoring hierarchy isn't quite known yet. The other perimeter players in the starting lineup are score-first players and the offense will likely run through the young bigs consistently as well. Regardless, it is difficult to envision that he wouldn't receive some level of improvement in usage rate going away from the Bucks and playing more minutes will help, too.
The next greatest factor that will come into play for Brogdon's development will be his scoring impact. He is already a highly effective catch-and-shoot player but he will need to improve his off the dribble shooting ability. Only 11 percent of Brogdon's shot attempts within the half-court last season came in the form of off the dribble jump shots. His output of 0.672 points per possession on these attempts ranked 192nd among the 203 players with at least 50 attempts.
There will likely be an adjustment period for Brogdon as a pull-up shooter but improvement may not end up taking place altogether. He has struggled with his execution on these particular shot attempts during the Pacers' two preseason matchups with the Kings. Again, it's still way too early to make any definitive conclusions and surely not based on preseason play.
There was a play against the Kings that featured Brogdon exploiting a defender going under a ball screen and he reacted by pulling up from three and knocked it down. With his slow release and reputation to not take these attempts, defenders are likely going to continue to leave themselves vulnerable to force him to pull-up.
It would be much easier for the Pacers to embrace Brogdon as one of their top scorers if the needed improvement in his pull-up jump shooting were to take place. There were times against the Kings when he hesitated and ultimately elected not to pull-up for a jumper and that can't happen in the regular season.
The Pacers' half-court offense has depended on mid-range shooting and that likely won't change. Last season, only the San Antonio Spurs attempted a higher rate of their shot attempts from mid-range than the Pacers. Brogdon will need to be prepared to be effective given that only attempting 9.6 percent of his jump shots within the half-court came from mid-range last season and his execution struggled.
There is room for growth for Brogdon's finishing execution as well and that's before considering that the degree of difficulty of his drives will be harder. He produced 1.142 points per possession on finishes around the basket (excluding post-ups) last season and that ranked 38th out of the 42 players that attempted at least 300 finishes.
Last season, 33.5 percent of Brogdon's finishes around the basket within the half-court were the result of drives out of spot-up and that's likely going to drop sharply. The great floor spacing that the Bucks played with last season enabled their unit to break down the defense and create simple lanes for Brogdon after he made the catch. The Pacers do have players that can get into the paint but they lack willing passers.
The conditions that Brogdon will face on drives will be more difficult with the Pacers and he has already experienced that through two preseason games. He is going to have to be prepared to finish off one foot despite his lack of explosiveness. There will be more situations with the Pacers when he has to win at the point of attack to initiate a drive and he will need to be prepared to face a rim protector challenging his finishes
In order to develop as a ‘go-to' scoring option, Brogdon is going to need to consistently knock down pull-up jumpers and finish layups off one-foot. The role of being the top perimeter scoring option will almost certainly belong to T.J. Warren regardless, but Brogdon will cap his potential as a scorer if progress isn't achieved.
The likely increase in Brogdon's assists average will be the foundation of his resume for the NBA's Most Improved Player of the Year Award. Despite that, he will need to improve in key areas of scoring to be in serious consideration to win it.
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