The St. Louis Cardinals (25-37) visit the Texas Rangers (40-20) for the finale of their three-game series. First pitch commences Wednesday at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Rangers secured a series win thanks to their 6-4 win last night. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Cardinals-Rangers prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Cardinals-Rangers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Rangers Odds
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-162)
Texas Rangers: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How To Watch Cardinals vs. Rangers
TV: Bally Sports
Stream: ESPN+, MLB.tv
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET/ 5:05 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Cardinals-Rangers LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 2-8 (Fifth in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 26-36 (42%)
Over Record: 29-31-2 (48%)
St. Louis continues to struggle and they've now lost seven of their last eight games. While they managed to cover the first game of this series, they narrowly missed the mark last night. Considering how tight these matchups have been, St. Louis stands a strong chance of covering tonight as road underdogs. That said, the Cardinals need their bats out in full force tonight matched up against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.
Righty Jack Flaherty (3-4) makes his 13th start of the season for the Cardinals tonight. The 27-year-old has been relatively solid for St. Louis this season barring a disastrous start in early May during which he allowed 10 runs in just 2.1 innings. That blow-up caused his ratios to skyrocket – for the season he holds a 4.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. That said, the underlying numbers suggest Flaherty has strong. He's done an excitant job limiting hard contact and holds a strong whiff rate. However, he's struggled mightily with free passes – issuing 35 walks compared to 64 strikeouts.
That said, he settled down in his two most recent starts. Over his last 12.1 innings, he allowed just two runs and walked two hitters. He faces arguably his toughest test of the season tonight against the most potent offense in the league. However, the Rangers have notably hit worse against righties (.273 AVG) compared to lefties (.296 AVG) – perhaps providing an avenue to a quality start for Flaherty.
St. Louis' offense revolves around their corner infielders with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado serving as one of the league's top one-two punches. However, the Cardinals have gotten a ton of production out of young slugger Nolan Gorman. Gordman finds himself in the midst of a breakout season – batting .268 while slugging out 14 homers and driving in 44 runs. His advanced metrics are eye-popping: 91st percentile xwOBA, 90th percentile hard-hit rate, and 93rd percentile xSLG. Despite going 0/4 last night, look for Gorman to bounce back tonight considering he holds a .903 OPS against righties.
Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 8-2 (First in the AL West)
Run Line Record: 40-20 (67%)
Over Record: 34-24-2 (59%)
Texas continues to be one of the best stories of the MLB season. The Rangers boast the most potent lineup in the league as they lead the majors with 6.4 runs per game. Consequently, they rank second in OPS and fifth in isolated power while recording the fourth-highest extra-base hit rate. Texas already secured a series win against the Cardinals – their sixth consecutive series win. With one of the hottest pitchers in baseball on the bump, they stand a strong chance of covering yet again tonight.
Righty Jon Gray (6-1) makes his 12th start of the season for the Rangers tonight. The 31-year-old had a breakout year last season in his first year away from Coors Field. The former Rockies pitcher has exploded this season, however, as he owns a 2.51 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 11 starts. His underlying numbers suggest this is no fluke either. Gray ranks in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 61st percentile in barrel percentage allowed. His fastball has been humming as well – ranking in the 78th percentile in velocity. However, he owns a 4.39 expected ERA – perhaps pointing to some regression in the future. Still, he's on an incredible run of late – winning five straight starts while allowing just three runs in 34 innings over that span.
The Rangers feature strong bats up and down their lineup and catcher Jonah Heim is no exception. The 27-year-old is in the midst of a breakout year thanks to a .293 average, seven home runs, and 46 RBI. In addition to being an elite pitch framer behind the plate, Heim boasts strong advanced metrics – sitting in the 89th percentile in xBA and the 82nd percentile in xSLG.
Final Cardinals-Rangers Prediction & Pick
While the Rangers took the first two games, I expect the Cardinals to come out firing and at least keep things close in tonight's series finale.
Final Cardinals-Rangers Prediction & Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-162)
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