Following their week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, it appeared as though the Cleveland Browns were headed towards another lost campaign. 13 years after posting their last winning record, and only three since they went 0-16, the reincarnated franchise had originally entered the 2020 NFL season with the belief that they had finally put together a functioning roster–and perhaps even hope that they could compete for a postseason spot.
The manner in which Lamar Jackson and the Ravens dismantled them however, seemed to indicate that not much had changed for the oft maligned franchise. As it turns out, first impressions aren't everything.
A stunning 9-2 since their opening week defeat, the Browns have been carried by a defense that has established itself among the league's best, and an offensive attack that has improved as the year has waned on. While Cleveland still appears vulnerable heading into the playoffs, the mere fact that the franchise is likely to make an appearance in the postseason tournament is a boon for an organization that has spent the past two decades in squalor.
Facing the franchise that once bore the “Browns” moniker, Cleveland will be looking to not only avenge their week 1 loss, but send a clear message to Baltimore that they will be the division doormat no longer. Here are our four bold predictions for the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in week 14.
1.The offensive game plan will be focused around Baker Mayfield
Although he was taken with the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, Baker Mayfield has generally played second fiddle in the Browns' offensive attack. Built around the dynamic running abilities of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland's head coach Kevin Stefanski has instituted a playbook that emphasizes ball control, and a strong point of attack along the offensive line. With Mayfield turnover prone for much of the first half of the year–at one point throwing picks in eight straight games–the Browns decided to limit attempts in the passing game, averaging a mere 206 yards per game through the air.
That trend has begun to change over the last two weeks however.
Facing the Jaguars and Titans, Cleveland has witnessed defensive units begin to stack the box in the hope of stymying their running game. With opponents so heavily shaded towards preventing gains on the ground, Stefanski has in turn unleashed Mayfield in pacing the scoring unit. While the quarterback has always been known for his top-tier accuracy, he has historically struggled to complete passes downfield with any consistency, finishing his second year in the pros with a passer rating of only 72.9 on deep throws.
Despite this, Mayfield accrued his best performances of the season the last two games on action reliant on his ability to throw downfield, gaining nearly 600 passing yards, six touchdowns with no interceptions. Utilizing the threat of their running backs with play-action, the QB has been extraordinarily patient waiting for routes to develop, and has avoided the type of ill advised throws that have plagued him throughout his young career.
Facing a defense in Baltimore that ranks only 14th in passing yards allowed, expect to see Stefanski once again turn to his former top draft pick to lead the Browns. While it may have taken a bit longer than the Browns may have liked, their head coach's ability to zig, when opponents expect him to zag, has given new life to the hype surrounding Mayfield.
2.Donovan Peoples-Jones gets his first 100-yard Receiving Game
Entering the year, Cleveland was lead by a talented wide receiver known as much by the three letter acronym of his name, then his full name itself. It may have taken a whole season to get there, but heading into week 14, that still may be true for the Browns.
The rise of DPJ within the Browns' receiving corp, following the loss of OBJ to a season-ending injury, is a welcome sight for a team still developing their passing attack. Though he has at times faded in prominence within their scheme, Cleveland's recent pivot towards the throwing the ball, combined with his standout performance last week against the Titans should change that.
Though he has struggled to run routes properly–not uncommon for rookie wideouts–Peoples-Jones was drafted because of his raw athletic ability and breakout speed. While the Ravens secondary is filled with the talent, the team's need to play upfront against Cleveland's run game, should allow DPJ space to operate. If the Browns continue with their play-action throws downfield, there is likely to be no bigger beneficiary than their young wide receiver.
3. The Browns increase their turnover differential
For much of the season, Cleveland's game plans were surprisingly simple. Avoid turning the ball over, control the play clock, and mercilessly threaten the quarterback to make up for a leaky secondary. While they may be turning to a more aggressive offensive plan of attack, the team is still reliant on their ability to pressure opposing QBs, and feast on the turnovers that usually followed.
With Mayfield succeeding in limiting his own turnovers over recent weeks, the Browns are a +7 in turnover differential through the year, good for fourth in the league.
Facing a team like the Ravens, who typically feature a heavy running attack, it would generally be unlikely that the Browns would succeed in forcing turnovers of their own. Baltimore's preference for putting Lamar Jackson in RPO's however, combined with their instability along the offensive line should open opportunities for Myles Garrett and company to wreak havoc.
Having played six different combinations of lineman over the last 11 games, the Ravens have struggled with a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness to their starting group. For a team that has to often been forced to play behind on the scoreboard, the pressure on Jackson has generally been enough to stymie the Ravens as they've limped to a disappointing 7-5 record on the season.
With Garrett starting to draw consistent double teams as a result of his 10.5 sacks on the year, interior players Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi have done a superb job rushing through the gaps on the way to the quarterback. Given the Ravens' vulnerabilities look for the Cleveland defense to spend an ample amount of time in the Baltimore backfield, while giving their offense extra possessions.
4. The Browns end the day with a positive point differential
One of the basic number most often used in the analytics community when seeking to measure a team's true talent, is their point-differential. A simple counting stat calculated by looking at the difference between the points a team allowed, versus the points they've scored, a good team will generally have a positive number, while a bad will, obviously, have a negative one. For a great team, the number should be quite high as great teams typically have several blow out wins throughout the season,
For a team that appears likely headed for the playoffs, the Browns have been questioned throughout the season because their point differential is not only below average, but negative. At negative-15 on the year, Cleveland's scoring margin is indicative of a team that would usually be at or under.500 rather than one that is 9-3. While the number isn't a complete disaster, it is easily the worst of any team in the NFL that currently has a winning record, and would seem to suggest some of the Browns' success this year has been the result of luck.
Though they are never going to match the Steelers plus-123, look for Cleveland to finish the day with a slightly positive number as they beat the Ravens 30-14. Given the rise of their passing attack, the Browns possess the means to sprint out ahead of Baltimore, while relying on their defensive line to attack a desperate Lamar Jackson trying to make up the difference.
After Sunday afternoon, no one will wonder if Cleveland is for real.
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