The Pepperdine Waves take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Pepperdine Gonzaga prediction and pick.
The college basketball season has been a bumpy ride for Gonzaga. The Zags lost by a large margin to Purdue and were blasted by Texas. They fell short against Baylor. They barely beat a Michigan State team which has lost four games so far this season. They just haven't been the team we saw in each of the previous two seasons. Replacing Andrew Nembhard has been a challenge. Mark Few doesn't have the same elite level of guardplay he has had in the past. The engine of his offense doesn't run as smoothly as it previously did. Chet Holmgren is not on this roster, and that takes away an all-court player who affected games in so many different ways for the Zags.
However, for all the struggles this team has endured, the Zags might be emerging into their best selves. They beat Alabama in Birmingham earlier in December, 100-90. They looked like a vintage Gonzaga team. They shot 57 percent against Alabama's defense. They placed six scorers in double figures. They forced 21 Alabama turnovers and were plus-12 in turnover differential. Active defense and flowing offense gave Gonzaga its best win of the season in its best performance of the season. That is definitely something Mark Few can point to as a guide for this game, the WCC season, and the road to March.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pepperdine-Gonzaga College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Pepperdine-Gonzaga Odds
Pepperdine Waves: +20.5 (-110)
Gonzaga Bulldogs: -20.5 (-110)
Over: 159.5 (-114)
Under: 159.5 (-106)
Why Pepperdine Could Cover the Spread
The fact that Gonzaga's offense flourished against Alabama doesn't necessarily mean that the Zags are a finished, polished product which has figured everything out. Gonzaga was fairly ordinary in an 85-75 win over Montana, which was the game played after the Alabama game. Gonzaga didn't carry its high level of play from Birmingham back to the Pacific Northwest. We still need to see Gonzaga stack together great performances and hum with elite offensive efficiency before we allow ourselves to view Gonzaga as a top-tier national championship contender. The Zags do not merit such status right now, and with the spread being a very large 20.5 points, Pepperdine — which does have some talent and will obviously be highly motivated for this game — has a very good chance of covering.
Why Gonzaga Could Cover the Spread
Gonzaga's not-very-good performance against Montana should not be assigned too much meaning or value. The Zags were dealing with pre-Christmas distractions and final exams. The road trip to Birmingham for the win over Bama was draining and taxing. No one should have expected Gonzaga to be especially sharp or locked in for the Montana game. This team has been able to get some rest and recharge for the WCC season. Gonzaga is going to come out of the tunnel roaring and should be fully focused for this game against a Pepperdine team which has lost seven games and is just not strong enough to hang with GU for 40 minutes. This is a mismatch. Pepperdine can't play defense in general, but the Waves are going to be especially overmatched by Gonzaga, whose depth really emerged against Alabama with the six double-figure scorers. The emergent balance in the GU offense is precisely what will enable the Zags to win this game by 30.
Final Pepperdine-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick
Gonzaga's quality and performance are both getting better. Trust the Zags to win this game by 25 or more.
Final Pepperdine-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick: Gonzaga -20.5
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