The San Francisco Dons take on the Saint Mary's Gaels. Check out our college basketball odds series for our San Francisco Saint Mary's prediction and pick. Find out how to watch San Francisco Saint Mary's.
The Saint Mary's Gaels looked like an NIT team in late December. They had absorbed losses to Washington and Colorado State in addition to an expected loss at Houston and a New Mexico loss which only looks better today. The Colorado State game is hard to process right now, given how bad the Rams have been in the Mountain West. Saint Mary's lost to the Rams at home and just didn't play very well in that contest. This team had clearly not hit its stride. Head coach Randy Bennett had to wonder if all the pieces would come together on his roster.
In WCC competition, those doubts have been destroyed.
Saint Mary's is unbeaten in West Coast Conference play heading into February. The Gaels' familiar combination of structured offense and relentless defense under Bennett has them in first place, since Gonzaga lost at home to Loyola Marymount. The obvious importance of going unbeaten in January is that Saint Mary's has turned itself from a bubble team into a solid NCAA Tournament team. The other important element of SMC's rampage through the WCC is that if the Gaels can win all of their non-Gonzaga games, they will put themselves in a position where a series split against Gonzaga will give SMC the regular-season WCC championship and the No. 1 seed at the WCC Tournament.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the San Francisco-Saint Mary's College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: San Francisco-Saint Mary's Odds
San Francisco Dons: +11.5 (-102)
Saint Mary's Gaels: -11.5 (-120)
Over: 129.5 (-110)
Under: 129.5 (-110)
How To Watch San Francisco vs. Saint Mary's
TV: ESPNU
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 11:00 p.m. ET, 8:00 p.m. PT
*Watch San Francisco-Saint Mary's LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
Why San Francisco Could Cover the Spread
This team is talented and has elite shotmakers. San Francisco led Gonzaga by six points with 4:12 remaining earlier this season before allowing the Zags to slip away late and steal that road win over the Dons. San Francisco crushed an Arizona State squad which is currently an NCAA Tournament bubble team. The Dons lost by only three points to a New Mexico team which is likely to make the NCAA Tournament, and which was the last team in major college hoops to lose a game this season. San Francisco has proved, at several points this season, that it can compete well against highly-credentialed and prominent opponents. Saint Mary's would certainly qualify as one. Given that the spread is over 11 points, USF can definitely cover. It can lose by 10 and still successfully cover the spread. That seems almost too good to be true.
Why Saint Mary's Could Cover the Spread
The Gaels' unbeaten WCC record speaks for itself. Coach Randy Bennett does such a great job of game-planning and preparing his Saint Mary's teams for opponents. When the Gaels get into WCC games, the reality that these teams know each other so well helps Bennett, because he is so good at identifying the weak points in opponents and getting his players to attack those vulnerabilities. Saint Mary's beat San Francisco by 17 points on the road in the first meeting between these teams this season. It is hard to think SMC won't continue to hold a clear upper hand over its non-Gonzaga opponents in the WCC. The Gaels are poised to sustain what they have started.
The other thing to point out here is that San Francisco has wobbled on the road in WCC play this year. The Dons lost at Portland and lost at Santa Clara. Their wins — Loyola Marymount being one example — have been narrow rather than decisive.
Final San Francisco-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick
The Gaels are likely to win, but the grind of WCC play is more likely to limit their ceiling in this game. San Francisco probably won't win the game outright, but it should be able to keep this game relatively close. This is a very large spread; USF will cover it.
Final San Francisco-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick: San Francisco +11.5
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