The SMU Mustangs take on the Houston Cougars. Check out our college basketball odds series for our SMU Houston prediction and pick. Find out how to watch SMU Houston.
The Houston Cougars are the overwhelming favorite to win the AAC title. They obviously expect to win their conference, but the important part is to win the league in dominant fashion, so that the Cougars can become a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Houston was a No. 2 seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament when it reached the Final Four, and the Cougars are certainly in the mix for a high seed. It is important, however — given the weakness of the AAC as a whole — for Houston to crush the conference and not lose multiple games to any opponent in the league. No AAC team other than Memphis, which is 11-4 and just did lose to Tulane, looks like a remotely decent threat to make the NCAA Tournament. The AAC, at most, will be a two-bid league, and Houston is the only NCAA Tournament lock. The Cougars can't lose more than one game in the entire conference season (and that loss has to be to Memphis) if they want a No. 1 seed.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the SMU-Houston College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: SMU-Houston Odds
SMU Mustangs: +20.5 (-118)
Houston Cougars: -20.5 (-104)
Over: 130.5 (-110)
Under: 130.5 (-110)
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Why SMU Could Cover the Spread
This is a Houston team which blew a 15-point second-half lead at home against Alabama and lost to the Crimson Tide. This is a Houston team which had a solid lead over Central Florida this past weekend but then briefly fell behind the Knights in the second half before rallying to win. Houston is a really good team. Everyone knows how tough the Cougars are, with their blue-collar defense and their high-energy effort on the glass. However, we have seen Houston lose the plot in second halves of multiple games this season. That should make a lot of people wonder just how good Houston is, leading experts to question if the Cougars really are as good as their No. 2 national ranking would suggest. Keep in mind that Houston's win at Virginia doesn't look nearly as good right now after Virginia lost to Pittsburgh. There is a strong case to make that Houston is overrated.
SMU is also playing better basketball. The Mustangs beat Iona and Utah State as an underdog and nearly won the Diamond Head Classic on Christmas. The only reason they didn't win is that Hawaii threw in a 35-footer at the buzzer. SMU is getting better, and Houston better watch out.
Why Houston Could Cover the Spread
The Cougars have wobbled in second halves of games, but most of the time, they haven't. If Houston — mindful of how it briefly stumbled against Central Florida — fixes its flaws and addresses its problems, the Cougars will play a complete game here against SMU. If we do see a complete game from this team, Houston will win by at least 25 points if not more. Houston will play hard and will display tough defense with four or five minutes left in regulation time, even if it already leads by 20 or 18 points. That's one important reason to think the Cougars will cover the spread against SMU. They truly do fight to the finish, win or lose.
Final SMU-Houston Prediction & Pick
When Houston stumbled against Central Florida — winning, but not convincingly due to an extended lull — it underscored the point that conference games have a way of being competitive even if the win-loss records suggest a game shouldn't be close. Take SMU to cover the large spread.
Final SMU-Houston Prediction & Pick: SMU +20.5
How To Watch SMU vs. Houston
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET, 4:00 p.m. PT
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