The No. 7 Texas Longhorns (15-2) visit the No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones (13-3) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Texas-Iowa State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Texas has won three consecutive games and sits 4-1 and tied for second place in the Big 12. The Longhorns covered 41% of their games while 64% went over the projected point total. Iowa State is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Kansas but remains 4-1 and tied for second place in the Big 12. The Cyclones covered 69% of their games while 69% went under. This will be the first of two meetings between the conference foes. The home team has won seven of the last eight games dating back to 2019.
Here are the Texas-Iowa State college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Texas-Iowa State Odds
Texas: +2.5 (-118)
Iowa State: -2.5 (-104)
Over: 131.5 (-105)
Under: 131.5 (-115)
How To Watch Texas vs. Iowa State
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread
Texas has put together an incredible start to their 2022-23 season especially considering they lost their head coach in early December. The Longhorns have just two losses – to Illinois and Kansas State. Texas fares well within the advanced metrics as they rank No. 9 in KenPom and No. 11 in NET. They've compiled a perfect 10-0 record in Quad 2, 3, and 4 matchups while going 5-2 in Quad 1 games. Their five Quad 1 wins are tied for the third most in the country. Texas is currently projected to be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
If Texas is going to cover as road underdogs tonight, they're going to need their offense to continue firing on all cylinders. The Longhorns rank 13th in the country in scoring (81.5 PPG) and do a great job spreading the ball out. Texas ranks 14th in assists (17.2 APG) and rosters four players who average at least 10 points and 2.5 assists per game. While they aren't a huge threat from beyond the arc, the Longhorns rank 11th in two-point field goal percentage (57%). Texas eclipsed 70 points in all but one game this season.
Offensively, the Longhorns are led by senior Marcus Carr. The former Pitt and Minnesota guard saved his best college season for last as he has been one o the best players in the Big 12 this season. Carr ranks fifth in the conference in scoring (17.5 PPG) and assists (4.3 APG). He is a deadeye from beyond the arc, ranking third in the Big 12 in made threes (2.7 3PM/Game). Despite a cold stretch over his last three games, Carr will be the focal point of any Texas cover tonight thanks to his ability to stretch the floor and distribute to teammates.
Why Iowa State Could Cover The Spread
Despite their two-point loss to Kansas on Saturday, Iowa State has been stellar this season as they've lost a total of three games. In addition to Kansas, the Cyclones dropped matchups with Connecticut and Iowa. The advanced metrics view Iowa State very favorably as they rank No. 13 in KenPom and No. 10 in NET. While the Cyclones have gone 9-0 in Quad 2, 3, and 4 games, they compiled just a 4-3 record in Quad 1 matchups. Iowa State is currently projected to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
For Iowa State to cover as home favorites tonight, they are going to need to slow down Texas' high-powered offense. The Cyclones feature one of the best defenses in the country as they allow the seventh-fewest points per game (57.9 Opp. PPG). Iowa State thrives on chaos and forcing its opponents into uncomfortable situations. They rank first in Division 1 in forced turnover rate as they force a turnover on 26% of opponent possessions (19.4 Opp. TOPG).
For as good as their swarming defense is, the Cyclones are going to need to score to keep up with Texas. Iowa State's offense is led by a pair of senior guards in Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur. Holmes leads the team in scoring with 12.8 PPG, while Kalscheur is not far behind him with 12.5 PPG. Both players average over one steal per game. Their X-factor is freshman guard Tamin Lipsey. Although he averages just 6.7 PPG, he is a talented passer and fearsome defender who leads the team with 4.8 APG while chopping in 1.8 SPG.
Final Texas-Iowa State Prediction & Pick
The home team has fared very well in this series historically and I expect that trend to continue tonight. With Iowa State coming off a brutal loss at Kansas, expect them to come out fired up and ready to go against their conference rivals.
Final Texas-Iowa State Prediction & Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (-104)
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