The #10 Alabama Crimson Tide visit the #11 Ole Miss Rebels in a top-25 SEC matchup on Saturday. The kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Alabama-Ole Miss prediction and pick.
Alabama is 7-2 having lost two of their last three matchups to #5 Tennessee and #7 LSU. Alabama is 4-2 in SEC play and currently sits in third place in the SEC West. The Crimson Tide are coming off a tight 32-31 loss to LSU. Bama has a solid 5-4 record against the spread while 56% of their games have gone under.
Ole Miss is 7-1 with their lone loss coming to #7 LSU. The Rebels are 4-1 in SEC play and currently sit in second place in the SEC West. Ole Miss is coming off a bye week but most recently squeezed out a 31-28 win over Texas A&M. They are just 3-5-1 against the spread and 56% of their games have gone over.
Here are the Alabama-Ole Miss college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Alabama-Ole Miss Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide: -11.5 (-110)
Ole Miss Rebels: +11.5 (-110)
Over: 64.5 (-110)
Under: 64.5 (-110)
Why Alabama Could Cover The Spread
Despite a strong 7-2 record, Alabama has been somewhat of a disappointment by their lofty standards. They did start 6-0 before their recent skid but had to squeak out close wins over Texas and Texas A&M in the first half of the season. That being said, Alabama is still an elite program and the numbers reflect that. The Crimson Tide are 13th in total defense and 17th in total offense.
Offensively, the Crimson Tide are led by reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young. Young has been banged up but has still put together a stellar statistical season. For the season, Young is 33rd in the country in passing yards (2234), 24th in passing touchdowns (19), and 11th in QBR (83.7). Young is a consensus first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft and may very well be the first overall pick. He’s a game-changer in every facet of the game and will surely be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss in which he completed under 50% of his passes and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (1 and 1).
Alabama is hardly a one-man show, however, as they are 23rd in the country in rushing offense behind a stellar group of running backs. Junior Jahmyr Gibbs has been the bell cow of late – running for at least t99 yards in four of their last five games. On the season, he’s amassed 771 yards and six touchdowns. He’s also been the Crimson Tide’s leading receiver, catching 39 passes for 365 yards and three touchdowns.
Why Ole Miss Could Cover The Spread
Ole Miss comes off their bye as double-digit underdogs despite having a better record than their opponent. The Rebels feature an elite offense that is 11th in total offense but have been held back by their play on the other side of the ball. Ole Miss is 69th in total defense and have been particularly vulnerable on the ground. They rank 79th in rush defense – something LSU took full advantage of en route to rushing for 252 yards in their victory.
The Rebels are a ground-and-pound team that loves to run the ball. Ole Miss is third in the country in rushing offense. They feature two elite backs in Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. The freshman Judkins has been particularly effective. He is 12th in the country in rushing yards with 1036 and fifth in rushing touchdowns with 13. Evans, too, is no slouch. While he is the clear second back to Judkins, Evans himself has had a strong year. The junior has rushed for 680 yards on 6.3 yards per carry and has contributed seven rushing touchdowns.
If Ole Miss wants to cover, however, it will need a strong performance from sophomore quarterback Jaxson Dart. Dart has put together a solid season for the Rebels, throwing for 1911 yards and 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He was something of a detriment in their loss to LSU, however, as he completed just 56% of his passes and did not throw a touchdown. He did have a costly interception however and was contained on the ground – rushing for just seven yards on 10 attempts. Bama gave up over 500 combined yards in their two losses and allowed seven touchdowns – showing there is room to expose their secondary.
Final Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Alabama is still getting respect from markets that I don’t think is warranted. Given that Ole Miss has had two weeks to prepare and they’re playing at home, they should be able to cover a lofty spread with ease. Ride the home underdogs and don’t look back.
Final Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss +11.5 (-110)