The Baylor Bears are set to face the Kansas State Wildcats this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our Baylor-Kansas State prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here’s the Baylor-Kansas State odds:
College Football odds: Baylor-Kansas State
Baylor: +1.5 (-115)
Kansas State: -1.5 (-105)
Over: 50.5 (-110)
Under: 50.5 (-110)
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Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
The Baylor Bears have won four of their last five games, improving to an 8-2 record on the season. They are ranked 11th in the nation and 3rd in the Big 12. Last week, Baylor upset #8 Oklahoma at home by a score of 27-14. Baylor accumulated 414 yards, including 297 on the ground. The Bears forced two turnovers in the victory as well. This season, the Bears are averaging 32 points on 425 yards per game. They rank 10th in the nation with 6.5 yards per play. The offense favors the ground game, rushing the ball 60.27% of the time for 5.6 yards per rush (6th in FBS).
Defensively, the Bears held a high-octane Oklahoma offense to just two scores last week. The Bears defense forced two interceptions as Oklahoma went 2-9 on 3rd down conversions as well. The Wildcats have scored 30+ points over their last three games, so the Bears' defense must come ready to play. Over their last six games, Baylor is 5-1 against the spread. Fortunately, Kansas State is 2-5-1 against the spread in their previous eight games against a team with a winning record.
Why Kansas State Could Cover the Spread
The Kansas State Wildcats are riding a four-game win streak in which they are averaging 31.25 points per game. They are 7-3 and 4th in the Big 12, right behind Baylor. Their latest victory was against West Virginia, in which the Wildcats forced three turnovers and held the Mountaineers to 17 points. Senior quarterback Skylar Thompson has thrown for 1,696 passing yards and nine touchdowns this season. Deuce Vaughn leads the backfield with 987 rushing yards and thirteen touchdowns. The offense is averaging 28.7 points on 370.4 yards per game. The Wildcats rank 2nd in the nation in fourth down conversion percentage (84.62%).
Kansas State can counteract Baylor's strong run game by limiting the number of rush plays they call. The Wildcats rank 12th in the nation in opponent rushes per game (32.1). They allow just under three touchdowns to opponents per game (20.9 ppg). This game will be Thompson's final home game as a Wildcat. The senior night effect will be on display in Kansas State on Saturday afternoon. Kansas State is 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games overall.
Final Baylor-Kansas State Prediction & Pick
This Big-12 matchup is a toss-up, and Baylor has more to lose than Kansas State. Baylor needs to win their final two games of the regular season to earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game in Arlington, Texas. The Bears defense appeared to be at their best last week, limiting Oklahoma to just 260 yards of offense. Kansas State has struggled to get fans in attendance, but they are on a four-game winning streak, and it will be senior night in the stadium. The low total has me thinking that this will be a low-scoring battle, with the last team possessing the ball to become the winner. I am going to take my chances with the home team in Kansas State. Plus, Baylor is riding high after upsetting Oklahoma and they could be in a let-down spot.
Final Pick: Kansas State -1.5 (-105)
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