The Boise State Broncos are set to face the San Diego State Aztecs this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Boise State-San Diego State prediction, odds, and pick.

With Fresno State beating San Jose State on Thursday, San Diego State must win this game to capture the Mountain West's West Division championship. San Diego State can't fall into a tie in the standings with Fresno State, since the Aztecs lost to the Bulldogs earlier this season. SDSU, with a win, would finish ahead of Fresno State in the standings. San Diego State scored a shaky 28-20 win over UNLV a week ago. The Aztecs' normally reliable pass defense allowed several downfield pass plays. An early pick-six provided seven points for coach Brady Hoke's team, but the pass defense was not at its best. This forms the basis for a complicated Boise State San Diego State prediction.

Boise State needs to win this game and have UNLV upset Air Force (which beat BSU earlier this season) to win the Mountain West's Mountain Division title. Boise State has endured a very inconsistent season. The Broncos very nearly beat Oklahoma State, which is ranked in the top 10. They beat top-15-ranked BYU on the road. They beat Fresno State on the road. Yet, they also lost at home to Nevada in addition to Air Force. They also fell to UCF, which has not had an especially good season. First-year head coach Andy Avalos has struggled to get the most out of the Broncos' offense. It has been a weird year, as people who study college football odds know well.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Football odds: Boise State-San Diego State Odds

Boise State: -2.5 (-120)

San Diego State: +2.5 (-102)

Over: 44.5 (-110)

Under: 44.5 (-110)

*Watch College Football Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)

Why Boise State Could Cover the Spread

The San Diego State offense is not potent. It scored 21 points last week against a less-than-great UNLV defense. The Aztecs depend on their defense to win; San Diego State has allowed more than 24 points in regulation time only once this season. The offense depends on the margin for error the defense provides. Sometimes, the offense doesn't even do much to win; the defense carries the whole team, as it did in a 19-13 overtime win over San Jose State which finished 6-6 at the end of regulation. San Diego State is a good team, but an imbalanced one. If Boise State can do moderately well on offense, it has a great chance to win. This thought process is part of a Boise State San Diego State pick.

Why San Diego State Could Cover the Spread

The Boise State offense is not reliable, either. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier has had an up-and-down year. Boise State's offense struggles for whole games (Wyoming) and large segments of games (the first half against Colorado State). San Diego State's strong defense, which has been consistently good all season, has a very good chance to lock down Boise State and dictate the tempo of the game. If the game is ugly, that's exactly how San Diego State wants it. The Aztecs are used to getting in the mud and blunting the opposition's offense.

Final Boise State-San Diego State Prediction & Pick

The best pick to make on this game is not a point-spread bet, but an over-under bet. The defenses are the better units on each team. The offenses are inconsistent and do not have great quarterbacks. This is an odd 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff in Southern California, because CBS was willing to televise the game if the schools agreed to the early kickoff. Unless the defenses fail to wake up by the time the game starts, this definitely is an under bet, something like 17-13 or 20-17.

Final Boise State-San Diego State Pick: Under 44.5