The Cincinnati Bearcats are set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Cotton Bowl. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Cincinnati Alabama prediction, odds, and pick.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are making history in this game. They will be the first Group of Five conference team to play in the College Football Playoff. They defeated Notre Dame to essentially box the Irish out of the playoff. Cincinnati was always going to finish ahead of Notre Dame. The real question was Oklahoma State in the Big 12. When Baylor won that game, Cincinnati just needed to defeat Houston to make the playoff, as college football odds experts knew at the time. If you are thinking about a Cincinnati Alabama prediction, consider that the Bearcats made the playoff because they beat one of the central playoff contenders head to head. That was the difference which enabled Cincy to make Group of Five (and college football) history.

Alabama did not have its best team this year under Nick Saban — not even close. The Tide rushed for just six yards at home against LSU and had to sweat out that game against an average-at-best opponent. Alabama scored just three points in 59 and a half minutes at Auburn and forced overtime — eventually winning — only because Auburn running back Tank Bigsby improbably ran out of bounds in the final minutes. Alabama barely beat a Florida team which had a losing season (6-7). Alabama stumbled at many points along the way, but managed to win some squeakers. Neither the offense nor the defense were especially consistent, though Bryce Young played brilliantly for portions of the season and won the Heisman Trophy. (Whether he deserved it is another question.) When considering a Cincinnati Alabama pick, the struggles of the Tide have to be factored into the equation.

The counterpoint: Alabama smoked Georgia, 41-24, in a lopsided SEC Championship Game. That was Bama's best performance of the season by far, and a display of the full measure of talent this team possesses. Where was that against Florida, LSU, and Auburn? No one knows … but it showed up at the right time. The Cincinnati Alabama odds reflect the strength of the Tide based on that performance against Georgia.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College football odds: Cincinnati-Alabama Odds

Cincinnati: +13.5 (-105)

Alabama: -13.5 (-115)

Over: 57 (-110)

Under: 57 (-110)

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Why Cincinnati Could Cover the Spread

The Bearcats have a tough, physical defense. Coach Luke Fickell knows how to teach defense. His teams are regularly strong on defense, especially in second halves of games. Cincinnati regularly makes excellent halftime adjustments on defense. Cincinnati does not get physically overpowered on defense. That is the strength of this team.

When you then realize that Alabama couldn't run the ball against LSU, and couldn't score against an Auburn team which allowed 40 straight points to Mississippi State earlier this season, in the process of squandering a 28-3 lead, it should be clear that Cincinnati at least has a chance in this game, due to the matchup between its defense and Alabama's offense. If we see the Alabama offense which didn't show up against Auburn, Cincinnati will be in this game to the very end.

Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread

The case for Alabama is very simple: This is the best program in college football, with the best coach in college football, getting a month to heal from injuries and prepare for a game against a team which has not been in this situation before. There is no need to overthink this.

Final Cincinnati-Alabama Prediction & Pick

Alabama will win the game outright, so you should feel confident about a Bama moneyline pick, but Cincinnati's defense is for real, and Alabama does not have one of its best offensive lines. This game will not be a shootout. Alabama 27, Cincinnati 17.

Final Cincinnati-Alabama Pick: Cincinnati +13.5