The No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes will attempt to get back to winning ways as they travel north to battle the Wisconsin Badgers in a Big Ten West showdown. It's time to continue our College Football odds series and make an Iowa-Wisconsin prediction and pick.
The Hawkeyes won their first six games before being upset against the Purdue Boilermakers in their last outing 24-7. Meanwhile, the Badgers are on a current three-game winning streak and climbed their way back above .500 after a 1-3 start.
Here's how sportsbooks have set the Iowa-Wisconsin Odds.
College Football Odds: Iowa-Wisconsin Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 (-130)
Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 (-172)
Over 36.5 points (-112)
Under 36.5 points (-108)
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Why Iowa Could Cover The Spread
The Hawkeyes are 5-2 against the spread this season and have gone under the scoring total in five of their seven games.
Out of all the ranked teams, Iowa has the least explosive offensive attack. They score 28 points a game and average just 311.1 yards per game. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras has been serviceable this season but has not shown he can impact a game. He completes 59.5% of his passes attempts and has nine touchdown passes to six interceptions.
Iowa's ground game is accounting for over a third of their total yards, with 116.9 per game. Starting running back, Tyler Goodson has rushed for 586 yards and has five touchdowns.
Although Iowa may have a mediocre offense, their defense is one of the best in the country. They allow only 14.6 points per game and have the highest turnover margin in all of college football at +1.7. Moreover, their turnover margin is +5.5 in away games.
However, Kirk Ferentz side's most significant advantage will likely come from their special teams unit. Their kicker Caleb Shudank is 11 for 13 on field-goal attempts this season, and Punter Tory Taylor can easily punt the ball over 50 yards, giving them a field position advantage even if the offense fails to earn first downs.
Why The Wisconsin Could Cover The Spread
The Badgers are 3-4 against the spread this season and have hit the over in just three of their seven games as well.
The Badgers are set up similar to the Hawkeyes this season. They are average to below average on offense but spectacular on defense.
Offensively, they average 21.2 points per game and have one of the worst third-down conversation rates in all of college football at 28.12%. Their starting quarterback Graham Mertz has thrown just two touchdowns and has seven interceptions. However, they may have an x-factor in running back Braelon Allen. The Freshman hardly saw the field in the first three games of the season but has run for over 100 yards in each game during Wisconsin's three-game winning streak.
Defensively, the Badgers give up 18.4 points per game and allow only 223 yards per game. Wisconsin's defensive line overpowers teams. They allow the fewest run yards in College football with 53.3 yards per game and have 45 tackles for a loss this season.
Final Iowa-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
It seems like the wrong team is favored in the matchup. In a game with the lowest college football total of the season and two top-tier defenses, giving over three points to a top-ten team seems almost too easy. Wisconsin blew out the Purdue team that handed Iowa their first loss of the season, but this matchup does not play to their benefit.
Additionally, Iowa still believes they have a shot at making the college football playoffs and will be looking to embarrass a Wisconsin team who is 0-3 against ranked opponents this season.
For those reasons, look for the Hawkeyes to cover the spread, and do not shy away from putting them in an underdog moneyline parlay.
FINAL IOWA-WISCONSIN PREDICTION & PICK: Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 (-130)
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