The No. 21 Texas Longhorns with kick off their 2021 College Football season against a No 23. The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns on Saturday. This will be Texas' first season opener as a ranked team against a ranked opponent since 1984. It’s time to continue our College Football odds series and make a Louisiana-Texas prediction and pick.
The Longhorns ended the 2020 season with a 7-3 record and earned fourth place in the Big 12. Meanwhile, the Rajin' Cajun went 10-1 and finished the season on a seven-game winning streak.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Louisiana-Texas Odds.
College Football Odds: Louisiana-Texas Odds
Texas Longhorns -8.5 (-114)
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +8.5 (-106)
Over 58.5 points (-105)
Under 58.5 points (-115)
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Why The Texas Longhorns Could Cover The Spread
The Longhorns went 4-5-1 against the spread last season, just 1-3-1 as a home team. That said, they are 5-1 ATS in non-conference games in the last two years.
New coach Steve Sarkisian has already shown he will make his own decisions and not be swayed by the outside noise of the Texas football community. Coming into the season, many analysts expected to see Casey Thompson get the start in the season opener. However, this week, Sarkisian announced that redshirt freshman Hudson Card would earn the QB1 position against Louisiana.
It is hard to expect the Longhorns will replicate their explosive offense from last season, where they scored 43 points per game (5th best in the NCAA) after losing Sam Ehlinger under center. However, if there is one coach with the offensive wisdom to get out the gates quickly with a freshman quarterback, it is Sarkisian. According to Pro Football Focus, when Sarkisian was the offensive coordinator with Alabama in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he did not have a negative expected point added (EPA) per play over a game.
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) August 30, 2021
Defensively is where the Longhorns struggled the most in 2020 but expect to see some improvements this season. The Longhorns have eight defensive starters returning and brought in two new experienced coaches to improve their positioning and discipline.
Why The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Could Cover The Spread
The Ragin' Cajuns went 5-6 against the spread last season. However, as an away team, Billy Napier and his men went 4-2 ATS.
Louisiana is coming off its best year as a program, and all signs show that they will replicate that success in 2021. The Ragin' Cajuns scored 34 points a game last year (26th in the NCAA) and will have 93% of their offensive production returning.
In the final preseason awards and poll from the Sun Belt Conference, they had four of their players named to the preseason first-team lists and were ranked first in the west division, where they earned none of the ten first-place votes.
⚡️ Time to get #cULture shocked. pic.twitter.com/Ta8SB9jYT7
— Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns® Football (@RaginCajunsFB) September 2, 2021
Louisiana is equally good on defense as they were on offense last season. They held opponents to just 171 passing yards (sixth in the NCAA) and intercepted 4.94% of all passes thrown by the opposing quarterback last season (third in the NCAA). They held the reigning Big 12 champions, Iowa State, to just 14 points in last year's 31-14 season opener victory.
Final Louisiana-Texas Prediction & Pick
This line opened up at Texas -16 and has dropped all the way to -8.5. That seems too low for a Texas team that should have an improved defense and will put up many points in a Sarkisian run offense.
We will go against the public money and take Texas to cover the spread in their season opener for those reasons.
FINAL LOUISIANA-TEXAS PREDICTION & PICK: Texas -8.5 (-105)
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