Christmas is now behind us and the bowl season is finally getting good. It's time to continue our college football odds series with a Mississippi State-Texas Tech prediction and pick.
Mississippi State finished the season 7-5 after a rollercoaster of a season. Their highlight of the season came in Week 6 when they beat the No. 15 Texas A&M 26-22 and a few weeks later beat No. 12 Kentucky 31-17. Toward the end of the season, they were ranked No. 25 and beat Tennessee State 55-10. Mississippi State might be the first team to blow out a team by 45 and then become unranked the following week. Regardless of where they stand, they get the chance to play in a competitive bowl game against an average Texas Tech team. Mississippi State is led by sophomore quarterback Will Rogers who finished tied for second in FBS with 4,449 passing yards.
Texas Tech ended the year 6-6 which is just barely good enough for a bowl game. The Red Raiders started the season 3-0 but ended the year 3-6 to fall out of contention in the BIG-12 conference. This team utilized three different quarterbacks this year, which is not a good sign at all. They would also rotate running backs often and so none of them really found their groove this season. None of the backs finished with over 100 carries nor 500 yards on the season. The defense was the weak spot for Texas Tech as they gave up 32 points per game, more than their offensive average at 30 a game.
Here is how FanDuel set the Mississippi State-Texas Tech line for the Liberty Bowl.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State-Texas Tech Odds
Mississippi State: -9.5 (-108)
Texas Tech: +9.5 (-112)
Over: 58.5 (-110)
Under: 58.5 (-110)
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Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread
The Bulldogs utilize a giant receiving core who all contributed this season led by Makai Polk who finished with 98 catches, 989 yards, and nine touchdowns. This team contains a strong passing attack and it's one that is going to be the reason they cover this spread. The Red Raiders don't contain a good defense at all, so this is a good opportunity for Rogers to finish his great season on an even better note. Mississippi State hasn't played since Thanksgiving Day. You know that they are dying to get back on the field and it comes against a favorable opponent. The Bulldogs are 7-5 against the spread this year which is a good sign for bettors.
Why Texas Tech Could Cover The Spread
This is actually going to be a tough game for Texas Tech to cover. They will need to surprise the Bulldogs' defense with a new game plan because it doesn't seem like Texas Tech even has one. It's unclear who they will start at quarterback, but either way, he will need to be on his game. The biggest factor in this game will be if the defense can shut down the Mississippi State passing game. If they can't stop Rogers or the receivers, then it's going to be a long afternoon for them. The Red Raiders' best chance of winning this game will be on the defensive end where they were not great this season. Texas Tech finished the year 6-5-1 against the spread.
Final Mississippi State-Texas Tech Prediction & Pick
One good note for Texas Tech is they ended the year playing three top-10 teams in their final five games. They have seen very good competition lately and so that could benefit them against Mississippi State. I don't think it will factor much, however, as the Bulldogs' passing game is very elite. I'm taking Mississippi State to cover this spread and end the year on a good note.
Final Mississippi State-Texas Tech Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State -9.5 (-108)
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